Thursday, November 18, 2010

Stat of the Day: Philly Fed Index Crushes Estimates


So much for that much bally hooed double dip recession. The Philly Fed Index for November came in at a surprisingly rich 22.5 up from a 1.0 in October. It was also much higher then the 5.0 consensus estimates. The 22.5 reading was the largest number since last December. Leading the way were huge increases of 15 points in new orders and shipments. The main negative continues to be higher input prices due mainly to the sharp rise in commodity prices.

Inventories saw a big jump of nearly 13 points, but the overall number remained a -5.9 still showing that for the most part manufactures maintain very lean inventories. Hence, the likely huge jump in orders. Firms continue to underestimate the strength of this recovery.

The stock markets were already up strong from the potential Ireland bailout and the GM IPO. This news helped push the SP500 back over the 20ema around 1,192. Currently trading at 1,198 the markets appear poised a back a likely definitely run towards new recovery highs above the recent double top around 1,120.


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