Sunday, July 19, 2009

Update on the ECRI Weekly Numbers

Poster on one of my favorite blogs, Seekingalpha.com, has a good analysis of the latest info from the ECRI. Anybody following me of late knows that I'm a big fan of studies that focus on the meaning of economic indicators. Whether they are leading, coincidence, or lagging. The Conference Board as a very recognized Leading Indicators that has been pointing up for the last few months. The ECRI has a weekly report this is now showing 7% growth. Now this doesn't translate directly to the GDP rate, but it does predict that the economy is likly to begin growing at a sharp clip.

Most analysts that point still have a dire outlook point out that the economy has huge unemployment issues and surely can't start growing until we correct this jobs issue. It seems pretty incredible that anybody claiming to be an economists would ever use a laggigng indicator like jobs. If anythink the massive jobs lost in this Great Recession is what will lead to a strong recovery. Slack in an economy helps start the growth engine. When you've fallen so far its much easier to climb higher. After the 2001 recession which was very shallow and slack on job losses, the US naturally had a weak recovery and a suppossed jobless recovery. Unemployment never got that high and in know time the unemployment rate was just about as low as it'll get.

Read the report from Steven Hansen for more info on the ECRI and the latest numbers. Back on July 6th on wrote this post on the ECRI numbers - Economic Research Cycle Institule Predicts Recession Ended.

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