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IB Net Payout Yields Model

Rumble: Pivotal AI Cloud Shift

Update - Aug. 10, 2026 RUM Group with a huge start as an AI cloud company. The company has the assets for $3B+ of ARR next year. The stock is a gift here nearly flat in AHs after reporting the following numbers with Q2 results.  ~ Record Revenue of $40.4 Million up 61% YoY ~ ~   Closed Acquisition of Northern Data, Adding Approximately 250 MW of Unmonetized 2027 Targeted Capacity Representing a $3B+ ARR Opportunity ~ ~ Initiating Formal Guidance Beginning with Third Quarter 2026 Revenue Outlook of $87 Million to $93 Million ~ Original article posted on May30 Rumble Inc. is pivoting from video streaming to AI cloud services with the imminent Northern Data acquisition, targeting major AI compute opportunities. Post-merger, RUM expects a sales baseline of ~$425 million, driven by Tether commitments and GPU rental expansion, positioning the company for significant revenue growth. The stock will trade at about 10x sales initially, but substantial upside hinges on securing large AI ...

SoFi: More Wall St. Games

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  SoFi Technologies delivered 41% YoY revenue growth, and record loan originations. The flywheel effect and SoFi Plus adoption drove robust member and product growth, providing a recurring revenue stream for the future. The fintech guided conservatively due to adopting the view of up to 2 Fed rate hikes this year versus original expectations of rate cuts. The stock is cheap trading at just 13x 2026 adjusted EBITDA targets while consensus estimates project strong growth into 2028, including 52% EBITDA growth this year. SoFi Technologies, Inc.  ( SOFI ) continues reporting amazing results, yet the stock is stuck 50% below the all-time highs. The fintech is firing on all cylinders regardless of guidance for more market-related headwinds in the  2H. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock as the market is not accurately valuing SoFi based on the growth dynamics. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SoFi. Please review the...

Archer Aviation: Taking Off With Anduril

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Archer Aviation remains out of favor despite major announcements on new product developments on top of the promising air taxi business. The new Halo autonomous VTOL, developed with Anduril, targets commercial payload transportation, opening up a new market opportunity. The eVTOL manufacturer is still progressing towards certification of their eVTOL, unlocking a massive order backlog. ACHR stock trades below $5 with a $3.5 billion market value despite defense sector stocks obtaining far higher valuations. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Archer Aviation Inc.  ( ACHR ) and the eVTOL space are so out of favor right now that a big announcement with a defense sector darling didn't generate a lasting move in the stock. The aerospace company is quickly  building a robust business pipeline outside the air taxi focus. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bul...

Mobileye: Late To The Robotaxi Game

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Update - July 23, 2026 Mobileye probably needs new leadership with the stock back down to the lows, but the company is just getting further behind the robotaxi race with this leadership disruption. The company just announced the deal for the  cloud-enhanced advanced driver assistance system technology in select Stellantis N.V. (STLA) vehicles, starting in 2027, but the program involves Mobileye spending too much time on secondary tech, not robotaxis. -Mobileye ( MBLY ) founder Amnon Shashua has informed the board of his intention to step down as CEO upon the appointment of a successor, ending a 27-year tenure. -Mobileye’s board will hire an executive search firm to conduct a comprehensive CEO search. -Shashua has been offered the role of chairman once a new CEO is appointed. Original article posted on Jun. 17 Mobileye Global Inc. is entering the robotaxi market, launching a service in 2027 despite being late compared to established competitors. The ADAS company faces significant co...

Intel: Q2'26 Earnings Don't Impress

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Intel (INTC) jumped after reporting Q2 results that beat estimates, but the company didn't report impressive guidance for Q3. The semi. company only produced a Q2 EPS of $0.42 while guiding to only $0.38 for Q3. The results don't warrant a $100+ price. 

Ouster: Funded For Physical AI Scaling

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Update - July 17, 2025 Investors can now buy Ouster $18 below the recent secondary price. The stock is below the prior support/resistance line, but the Lidar sensor company is funded for Physical AI growth  Original article posted on July 4  Ouster, Inc. raised $200M, boosting pro forma cash to ~$375M, positioning for large-scale customer physical AI ramp-ups and inventory needs. The company has several customers with public disclosures of plans for rapid expansion for 10x to 100x unit growth. Management targets 30–50% annual growth, with potential for explosive acceleration as Physical AI applications proliferate. The stock currently trades at ~10x 2027 revenue targets, but consensus estimates may understate upside as major customers scale orders. Ouster, Inc.   ( OUST )  has suddenly become a Physical AI darling, but the market wasn't excited about a secondary offering. The LiDAR sensor company was wise to raise some additional funding as more customers look to ...

AST SpaceMobile: Failing Upwards

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Update - July 13, 2026 ASTS  facing support between $65 and $67.50. If the stock doesn't hold here, watch out below. The SpaceX IPO  was the alarm bell at the top in the space sector.  Original article posted on June 1 AST SpaceMobile continues running out of a way to meet targets for launching a space-based broadband network in the next year. Despite a $44B market cap, ASTS has minimal revenues, no operational satellite network, and faces major launch delays after the Blue Origin explosion. The company faces a competitive threat from Starlink Mobile, while the demand for D2D satellite services to cover dead zones has been very minimal. The stock remains irrationally priced considering the lack of anything close to a satellite network and major questions regarding ultimate demand. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » AST SpaceMobile, Inc.  ( ASTS )...

Baidu: Hidden AI Inflection

Updated - July 8, 2026 The chip company Baidu controls is now set to be more valuable than all of the parent company. Baidu only has a market cap of $40 billion while the company has a net cash position of nearly $30 billion. The valuation is just wild.  -Baidu's (BIDU) Hong Kong-listed shares surged about 7% on Monday after reports that its AI chip unit, Kunlunxin, is targeting a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation of about $50B. -Kunlunxin is seeking the valuation in its planned IPO and has asked prospective investors to commit to purchasing the company's AI chips at a value equivalent to three to seven times their intended IPO share subscription, according to The Information report. -Baidu (BIDU) disclosed in January that Kunlunxin had confidentially filed for a Hong Kong listing as part of a planned spin-off while the parent company retains a controlling stake. Founded in 2011 as Baidu's in-house AI chip division, Kunlunxin has expanded beyond supplying Baidu (BIDU) to serving...

CoreWeave: Hyperscaler Risk Overblown

  CoreWeave remains the leading neocloud with a $100 billion revenue backlog, yet trades at a depressed valuation due to debt and competitive fears. Meta Platform's AI cloud ambitions are misunderstood; META’s long-term capacity needs likely reinforce, not threaten, CRWV’s revenue pipeline. CRWV trades at only 2x 2028 EV/S target, with EBITDA forecasted at 70% of revenues and significant cash generation underway. I remain ultra Bullish, viewing the current weakness and sub-$45 billion market cap as a compelling entry point given rapid growth and a strong backlog. CoreWeave, Inc.   ( CRWV )   remains the leading neocloud, but the market hasn't given the company a lot of benefit for the booming backlog. The AI cloud company has investors fearful of large debt loads, and now a  major customer potentially entering the AI space is seen as another negative. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish with the market likely misinterpreting the competitive threat....

Rivian: Thank You, R2!

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Rivian Automotive launched the R2, marking a pivotal shift toward more affordable EVs and reigniting sales momentum. The EV manufacturer raised 2026 delivery guidance to 65K–70K vehicles, reflecting robust Q2 deliveries and improved production outlook. The stock trades at only ~2x 2026 sales targets, with valuation supported by strong positioning in the $50K midsize SUV/Crossover segment. The investment thesis remains ultra Bullish, emphasizing accelerating production, growing addressable market, and positive delivery surprises. Rivian Automotive Inc.  ( RIVN ) finally launched the R2 and the momentum in the company appears to have finally turned. The EV manufacturer now has a more affordable vehicle to sell, leading to a long  period of sales growth ahead. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock still trading within the yearly range despite the vastly improving story. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. ...

Bloom Energy: Pause Warranted

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Update - July 1, 2026 BAM agreeing to expand the partnership by $20B is just massive. BE ended down on the day due to irrational fears related to Meta Platforms (META) exploring entering the market to sell unused compute capacity. The market should fucus more on the demand for their data center power solution.  -Bloom Energy (BE) up 12% post-market Tuesday after announcing an ​expansion of its partnership with Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) to finance power ‌projects for AI infrastructure from the previously announced $5B to $25B, a fivefold expansion since October 2025. -The companies said the expanded partnership "reflects strong and sustained demand from hyperscalers and AI infrastructure developers for fast, reliable, and community-friendly power," as they continue to advance a new model for AI factories that integrates power, compute, data center infrastructure, and capital from the outset. Originally posted on May 21 Bloom Energy has secured major AI data center cont...

Mobileye: Stuck In Neutral

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Update - June 16, 2026 Mobileye  seems very late to the robotaxi business. The  frustration over the last couple of years was the lack of leadership in the autonomous vehicle shift.  -Mobileye ( MBLY ) on Tuesday said it plans to launch its own autonomous ride-hailing service in a U.S. city in 2027, expanding beyond supplying self-driving technology to operating robotaxi fleets directly. -The company aims to deploy around 100 driverless vehicles initially, with plans to scale to about 17,000 vehicles over the following five years. Original article posted on Apr. 4 Mobileye Global remains in a transitional phase, struggling to capture leadership in the fast-moving robotaxi and autonomous vehicle markets. The company has a promising $24.5B eight-year revenue pipeline, but annual revenues remain stagnant near $2B, with 2026 guidance projecting flat to 5% growth. The recent $900M Mentee Robotics acquisition pushes MBLY into humanoid robotics, but the company faces formidable ...

Roku: New Highs, No Problem

Update - June 12, 2026 Not sure how the Roku OS works inside another media company, but a buyout could be a good opportunity to cash out on big gains. The stock wasn't overly cheap anymore.  -Roku Inc. (ROKU) soared 20% on a report that the streaming video platform is in discussions to sell itself. -Roku has been in talks with at least one US media company about a potential deal, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday, which cited people familiar with the matter. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May 2 Roku, Inc. has surged to $125 as platform revenues grew at a robust 28% YoY clip in Q1'26, driving bullish sentiment. ROKU's business mix shift to high-margin platform revenue (now 90% of total) has yielded a 165% YoY jump in adjusted EBITDA. Management targets $5.5B in revenue and $675M in EBITDA in 2026, with free cash flow expected...

MP Materials: Rare Earth Powerhouse

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MP Materials Corp. leads rare earths mining outside China, with robust existing operations and ambitious expansion targets. MP targets $650 million adjusted EBITDA, driven by scaling NdPr and magnet capacity, with upside from higher NdPr prices and recycling. The stock is more attractive on dips to $50, equating to 15x EBITDA targets, though execution risks remain significant. MP Materials Corp.  ( MP ) is a leader in rare earths mining outside of China. The company already has a sizable business, but the stock has already reached levels with a similarly sizable valuation for the  opportunity in the near term. My investment thesis is more Bullish on the stock after the recent dip to $50 based on long-term valuation targets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple: Tim Cook Exits At The Top

Update - June 8, 2029 Based on news out of WWDC 2026, Apple continues to fail to deliver a functioning AI experience for the iPhone. The Siri AI now plans to work with the Google Gemini LLM on a private cloud, but the system won't reach Beta testing until later this year.  Deepwater analyst Gene Munster  -Craig says Siri AI in beta later this year, which explains the sell off. Investors wanted it in September. That means the real version is likely early to mid 2027. Funny that the stock actually ticked up 0.5% on the "beta later this year" update given while it's later than what they wanted, it is at least a date that investors can focus on. The stock trades at 35x FY26 EPS targets while the company still has no real AI product.  Original article posted on Apr. 29  Apple Inc. faces a challenging transition as Tim Cook exits and John Ternus assumes the CEO role. The iPhone replacement cycle appears to be ending with the March quarter, raising concerns about future gro...

Nu Holdings: Market Skepticism Appears Off The Charts

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Updated - June 3, 2026 Nu Holdings  hit a new 52-week low on the CFO change, but the stock rebounded pretty big on the hiring of a 30-yr veteran from Visa. The stock was cheap when trading at $19, much less below $12 now.  -Nubank ( NU ) has appointed Rob Livingston as chief financial officer, effective July 13, 2026. -Current CFO Guilherme Lago will transition to special advisor. Original article posted on May 19 Nu Holdings reported Q1 revenues up 42% FXN to $5.3B, but the stock had a post-earnings dip driven by higher credit losses. The digital bank reported a credit loss increase attributed to seasonality and portfolio growth, not asset quality deterioration; NPL ratios remain stable. NU trades at a valuation far below its >30% projected growth, offering a compelling entry point amid market overreaction to credit risks. The stock trades at just 10x '27 EPS targets while the fintech has a major catalyst with the entry into the U.S. market. Looking for a portfolio of idea...

Red Cat: Guidance Or Not, Path Is Higher

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Update - May 28, 2026   Red Cat is now up 40% on beginning production of the USVs, though no news on contracts. These boats cost upwards of $1M each. Also, the drone sector is jumping on news Trump is pushing for equity stakes in drone companies, though ironically shareholder dilution isn't bullish.  -Blue Ops Ramps into Full-Rate Production of U.S.-Built Variant 7, Advancing Red Cat’s Autonomy Stack Across Air, Land and Sea Original article posted on Apr. 21 Red Cat Holdings is positioned for significant growth in defense drones and robotics, with an unofficial 2026 revenue target of $170 million. The company is ramping up USV and drone production, targeting multi-billion-dollar opportunities, but refrains from formal guidance until government contracts are secured. Recent NATO-aligned Black Widow drone orders and robust cash reserves ($168 million) support operational expansion and future upside. Key risks include high competition and uncertainty in USV order flow; war de-es...