IB Net Payout Yields Model

Copper Inventories Continue To Plunge

Though a lot of focus exists over the copper inventories in China, the LME inventories continue heading south toward the lows in 2007/8. Ultimately this has to be very bullish for copper and construction stocks. Especially considering North America is just now heading into the heavy construction period.

The market has been so focused on the Chinese story regarding copper that it has completely ignored that the US is a dominant player in the demand story. At some point we're still expecting a strong US rebound by 2013 and China to continue with strong growth. The market is not prepared for both of the 2 largest users to be strong at the same time.

Below is the 5 year chart from kitco.com. As the chart shows, inventory levels haven't been this low since the last bull construction market in the US. Now though, levels are heading that way before construction has even become strong.

Naturally copper stocks such as Freeport McMoRan (FCX) will benefit the most, but construction equipment companies such as Terex (TEX) and Manitowoc (MTW) will benefit a lot as well.

Disclosure: Long FCX, MTW, TEX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 


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