Friday, May 25, 2012

Consumer Sentiment Jumps To October 2007 Levels

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of sentiment climbed to 79.3, the ninth straight increase, from 76.4 the prior month. The gauge was projected to hold at the preliminary reading of 77.8.

The ninth straight increase is a record. Interesting as it shows that Americans are finally moving past the European crisis. Cheaper gas and a better housing market is helping pull the American consumer forward while the downside risk in Europe is apparently wanning in the mind of consumers.

Even more interesting was news that German consumer confidence is expected to hold steady and France confidence increased in May to the highest levels since Nov 2010.

So does this mean the feared markets collapse in 2012 won't be a reality? Has the market got it wrong that a repeat of 2010 and 2011 is on the way? The market has a way of disappointing when everybody thinks one way. Three years in a row would be too much of a pattern.

Details from Bloomberg:
  • Estimates for the confidence measure ranged from 76 to 79, according to the Bloomberg survey of 60 economists. The index averaged 64.2 during the last recession and 89 in the five years before the 18-month economic slump that ended in June 2009
  • German consumer confidence will be steady in June, according to GfK SE. The group's consumer-sentiment index will hold at 5.7 next month, the Nuremberg-based market research company said today.
  • A separate report showed confidence in France increased in May to the highest since November 2010.
  • The Michigan survey's index of current conditions, which reflects Americans' perceptions of their financial situation and whether they consider it a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, rose to 87.2, the strongest since January 2008, from 82.9 the prior month.
  • The index of consumer expectations six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, increased to 74.3, the highest since July 2007, from 72.3 in April.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 





No comments: