Recession of Confidence
As Stone Fox Capital has been saying for a few months now, the data such as retail sales, industrial production, initial jobless claims, yield curves, and leading economic indicators have been relatively strong or at least not indicating a recession. On the flip side, the sentiment data such as consumer confidence and the regional fed manufacturing data have been bad.
The Philly Fed indicator is the main number that triggered the panic, but in reality this number records sentiment and not actual manufacturing activity. Note how the ISM reported 50.6 for August though Philly Fed was negative 30. Clearly the reality is a ton better than the sentiment. Guess the question is which one catches the other.
Interview with Jeff: