IB Net Payout Yields Model

Economists Back Off Recession Calls

This has to be the least covered story of the day. With everybody focusing on the Bernack, Obama, and even China inflation today, everybody seems to have missed that not only has the recession likely been taken off the table, but most economists now call for around 2.5% growth this quarter.

Even Goldman Sachs (GS) is going to likely raise their estimates for Q3 GDP from 1% to maybe as much as 1.5%. Remember they originally sparked a ton of fear when the supposed experts at GS reduced growth to such a meager level a few weeks back.

Interesting that so many 'experts' had previously stated that the US was already in a recession or was definitely headed into one, but now Q3 will be back to near standard growth.

Great interview with Jan Hatzius, GS chief economist. One very telling point was how the sentiment data factored into recession fears while the real data has turned out much better than expected. Clearly the sentiment data has clocked in much worse than normal primarily due to the 2008/9 financial collapse and possibly some hangover from the 2001 internet collapse. Consumers have a much more gloomy mentality these days than reality making the data not as useful.


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