IB Net Payout Yields Model

Obama Odds of Being Re-elected in 2012 Drops Below 50%

According to Intrade.com the odds of Barack Obama being re-elected President in 2012 has dropped below 50% now. Considering he spent most of the year at or above 60%, it shows the significant weakness he has faced as the economy falters.

Intrade is the world's leading prediction market though I haven't seen any details on the accuracy of the predictions. They are based on actual money invested so its people putting hard earned money at risk. Probably much better than a random poll of 1,000 people that would rather not have answered the phone.

The reduction in the chances of Obama being elected in 2012 could help push the markets up. Otherwise, summer 2012 could be another rough year if the markets have to come to grips with Obama for another four years. Anybody recall the end of 2008 through March 2009?


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