IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Chicago PMI Points to More Growth

The market sure ignores positive news these days. Chicago PMI came in at a very healthy 59.1 which should signal very strong ISM reports this week. The estimate for the ISM Index tomorrow is 59. Signs of very healthy growth in the Manufacturing sector. This may come to an abrupt end with the stock market doesn't turn around soon.

Very interesting to see that employment jumped 5 points to 54. It appears that manufacturing is starting to ramp up hiring even if the rest of the economy is not.

Orders are moving into production in what is another very strong Chicago purchasers report. The headline composite edged back six tenths in June to 59.1, well over 50 to indicate significant month-to-month growth for the area's business activity. Production rose more than three points to a very strong 64.2 with employment up five points to a 54.2 reading that indicates month-to-month hiring.

New orders keep coming in though at a slightly slower rate, at 59.1 vs. a prior string of 60 readings. New orders, given the increase in production, are not moving into backlog which shows only a marginal monthly increase at 50.7. Businesses drew down their inventories in the month with the reading down nearly 10 points to 46.5. The inventory draw likely reflects a combination of production needs and still conservative business management. Deliveries, at 60.7, continue to slow but at an easing rate compared with April and May when the reading was in the mid 60s. Input prices, at 61.9, accelerated at a slightly less aggressive rate than prior months.


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