IB Net Payout Yields Model

Leading Economic Indicators Jump Again

Though most of the economic data this week has been disappointing (was it really considering the stock market drop and European debt crisis), the Leading Economic Indicators came in at a solid 0.4%. So while the economy and markets might be going through a lull right now, the indicators suggest the expansion should continue. The April number was also raised to 0.0 from -0.1.

Need to do some further studying on the implications of the number being above the 2006 peak. In theory, that would mean that the economy at the end of 2010 should be much bigger and stronger then is was prior to the Great Recession. That clearly isn't the case as the market would have to rally nearly 40% to match those totals.

  • "The index points to continued, though slower, U.S. growth for the rest of this year," says Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board. "Public debt and deficits weigh heavily on growth prospects on both sides of the Atlantic. We project a serious slowdown in European growth in 2011, which could further weaken the U.S. outlook."
  • "The LEI for the United States has been rising since April 2009, and though its growth rate has slowed in 2010, it is well above its most recent peak in December 2006," says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. "Correspondingly, current economic conditions, as measured by The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the United States, have been improving steadily since November 2009, thanks to gains in payroll employment and industrial production."
  • The leading economic index is 12.0 percent above its most recent trough of March 2009 and it is 4.6 percent above its most recent peak in December 2006.


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