Sunday, January 3, 2010

Poll of the Day: Double Dip Recession?

Calculated Risk had an interesting poll over the weekend showing how pessimistic people remain. Over 57% of people that voted in the poll expect a double dip recession which appears absurdly pessimistic at this point in the recovery. The only likely scenario to cause a double dip would be massive tightening from the FED. Until that happens, it doesn't seem logical to invest with that expectation.

Now I think Calculated Risk is typical for internet blogs in that they tend to bring out the pessimistic people. This ratio though is off the chart. Only 2% expect a GDP growth of over 4% for next year completely going against history of substantial growth in years following serious recessions. Is that because the last 2 recessions were very weak on historical norms so people are expecting a repeat of recent norms? Or are the facts really suggesting an economy with sub par growth? Seems that the facts suggest a 4% growth so we don't really comprehend the rational for such negativity. Look at any economic number from 2009 and you'll see a v shaped recovery and one that will lead to much stronger growth.

2010 will be an interesting year to say the least. Pessimism like the ones in this report make us more and more bullish about the first half of this year. Investors continue to remain very negative and completely oblivious to the strong economic numbers coming out around the globe. How long it lasts depend on how quickly the Fed turns off the free money spiget. Until then, it does no good to predict a double dip or invest like it. Stay bullish until the turn takes place, then you can be negative to your hearts content.

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