Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Future Stat of the Week: ISM Non-Maufacturing to Show Growth

While all eyes will be on the Jobs report on Friday, the Non-Manufacturing Index will likely show a return to growth after a dip in November according to Bloomberg. The Jobs report on the other hand is expected to come in around -1K which could easily hop over to the positive column. That would probably cause some excitement, but I think having the ISM service report hit over 50 (the estimate is 50.5) and possibly the highest for the recovery would be crucial to signaling this recovery is for real. Till December, the recovery has been all about the rebound in Manufacturing caused by the global recovery in places like Asia. Now if the service sector hits full stride we'll definitely start looking for that strong 4%+ economy. Something that's not in the market yet.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey weakened in November, declining nearly 2 points to a sub-50 and sub-par 48.7. This composite had been marginally positive in September and October. However, the November dip appears to be temporary as the new orders index remained clearly above break-even, coming in at 55.1. Also, the Chicago PMI hints at a rebound in the ISM non-manufacturing index. However, the Chicago index is based on both non-manufacturing and manufacturing company survey responses.

 Bloomberg Survey

Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
ISM Manu Index 1/4 Dec. 53.6 54.0
ISM Prices Index 1/4 Dec. 55.0 58.8
Construct Spending MOM% 1/4 Nov. 0.0% -0.5%
Pending Homes MOM% 1/5 Nov. 3.7% -3.0%
Factory Orders MOM% 1/5 Nov. 0.6% 0.5%
Vehicle Sales Mlns 1/5 Dec. 10.9 11.0
Domestic Vehicles Mlns 1/5 Dec. 8.4 8.3
ABC Conf Index 1/5 Jan. 4 -44 -43
MBA Mortgage Applicatio 1/6 Dec. 26 -10.7% n/a
ADP Payroll ,000’s 1/6 Dec. -169 -75
ISM NonManu Index 1/6 Dec. 48.7 50.5
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 1/8 Dec. -11 -1
Unemploy Rate % 1/8 Dec. 10.0% 10.1%
Manu Payrolls ,000’s 1/8 Dec. -41 -35
Hourly Earnings MOM% 1/8 Dec. 0.1% 0.2%
Hourly Earnings YOY% 1/8 Dec. 2.2% 2.1%
Avg Weekly Hours 1/8 Dec. 33.2 33.2
Whlsale Inv. MOM% 1/8 Nov. 0.3% -0.3%
Cons. Credit $ Blns 1/8 Nov. -3.5 -5.0

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