Future Stat of the Week: Leading Economic Indicators to Soar Again
Anybody following these indicators should know that the yield curve expanded to record levels recently and hence it should be no surprise that the LEI for December expanded at a fast clip yet again. Initial jobless claims also will juice the number. Economists expect a 0.7% rise after 0.9% in November. Two very solid gains.
Market Consensus Before Announcement (Bloomberg)
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose a strong 0.9 percent in November, following a 0.3 percent boost the month before. November's increase was led by the yield curve component which had a 0.33 percentage point contribution, followed by initial unemployment claims, 0.26 percentage points, and the average workweek for manufacturing, 0.19 percentage points. Also making positive contributions were building permits, stock prices, and money supply. The coincident indicator rose 0.2 percent in November, following no change the month before. Looking ahead, the leading index should post another advance with the yield curve likely the strongest contributor. A sizeable positive contribution is also expected from initial jobless claims with a number of other components having marginally positive contributions. Real money supply may tug down slightly on the December leading index.