IB Net Payout Yields Model

Mike Darda Nails the Jobs Report

And I think he also nails the importance and outcome. Mike predicted a 450K versus the 467K reported. He also went on to say that it wouldn't prevent the equity markets from rallying. Jobs are a lagging indicator after all. If we see companies like increase production in Q3 because of lean inventories, the US will likely see a huge improvement in the jobs reports for July and August.

The reported number was much worse then expected, but the expectations seem way off base. With the ADP report on Wednesday and the weakness in the auto sector in June it's hard to figure out why the consensus would be in the 365k range.

Regardless the 'worst' then expected numbers were a 'shock' to the equity markets sending them down 2% today. The unemployment rate moved up only 0.1% to 9.5% and that will likely help the markets rally into the close. On the May report the better then expected numbers caused a huge rally to start the day that eventually rolled over as the day when on because most of the general public frets over the unemployment number that soared in May.

See the CNBC - Fast Money video below:


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