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IB Net Payout Yields Model

Nextdoor: Major Catalyst Has Finally Arrived

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Update - July 25, 2025 Nextdoor surged following the launch of the NEXT platform and switch of the ticker to "NXDR", but the stock has sold off the last 4 days providing an ideal entry point.  Original article posted on June 4 Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. trades near cash value, presenting a compelling risk/reward as it prepares to launch its transformative NEXT platform. Management paused monetization and user growth to focus on NEXT, temporarily depressing revenue but setting up for a major turnaround. NEXT aims to deliver hyper-local content, professional news, and AI-driven recommendations, addressing past engagement and monetization challenges. The stock trades at less than 1x EV/S targets due to a strong cash position, limiting downside risk while the upcoming platform relaunch offers significant upside potential. Just as  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.  ( KIND ) is set to launch a new user interface, the stock trades at all-time lows. Despite a promising turnaround in place, t...

SoundHound AI: Murky Growth

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Update - July 23 SoundHound AI is making another run at breaking resistance around $12.50. The voice AI stock has no business rallying from here, but the market doesn't fully understand pro-forma sales metrics.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posed on July 18 SoundHound AI, Inc.'s reported 150%+ growth is misleading, driven by acquisitions rather than true organic expansion, yet the stock trades at a premium valuation. Revenue guidance and pro forma numbers reveal little to no organic growth, casting doubt on management's optimistic projections and market enthusiasm. The stock trades at 30x 2025 sales targets of $167 million, which appear very aggressive. Given the murky growth story and high valuation, I recommend selling SOUN, as the stock is priced for perfection without supporting fundamentals. SoundHound AI, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: SOUN )...

Joby Aviation: $1 Billion Saudi Signal

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Update - July 16, 2025 Joby Aviation has now soared over 100% in the last month with the market cap jumping to nearly $14 billion. The stock is at all-time highs while the eVTOL is still is the process of certifying aircraft. Investors might want to pump the brakes.  Original article posted on June 5 Joby Aviation, Inc. surged on Toyota's $250M investment, boosting liquidity to $1.3B and reinforcing their manufacturing partnership. The air taxi company is progressing towards commercial launch, with pilot testing in Dubai and a potential $1B+ sales agreement in Saudi Arabia. Joby Aviation has production ramp-up plans for up to 500 eVTOLs annually, with a mix of direct sales and air taxi operations driving future revenue. JOBY stock is attractive on dips towards $7 due to certification and launch risks. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Joby Aviation, Inc.  ( NY...

Rivian: Moving Beyond Survival Mode

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  Rivian is making significant progress towards profitability due to major cost reductions, despite current sales challenges in the premium EV sector. The upcoming R2 and R3 models are set to dramatically boost sales, with production ramping up at the Normal, Illinois facility in 2026. Tesla's recent struggles and Elon Musk's political distractions create an opportunity for Rivian to capture market share in the domestic EV segment. I'm ultra bullish on Rivian at current levels, especially if the stock dips near $11, as future growth catalysts remain strong. As Elon Musk is still distracted by politics,  Rivian Automotive, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RIVN ) continues to progress towards launching the next-generation vehicles expected to dramatically boost sales levels. The EV maker has made significant progress towards turning profitable while  Tesla, Inc.  ( TSLA ) has floundered a massive lead in the EV race. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on Rivian...

Meta: Superintelligence Requiring A Bigger Scale (Rating Downgrade)

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Update - June 30, 2025 Meta  quickly rallied to a new high today at $748 on the Superintelligent Labs and quickly eversed in a potential sign of a top. In a bid to lead the next wave of AI innovation, Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) is creating a “superintelligence” division dedicated to developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies. Meta Superintelligent Labs will be led by Alexandr Wang, the former CEO of Scale who Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) lured away after making a $14.3B investment for a 49% stake in the company. Along with Wang, a select group of Scale employees and researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google ( GOOG ) have also joined the Meta superintelligence team. In a letter to employees viewed by Bloomberg, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, “as the pace of AI progress accelerates, developing superintelligence is coming into sight. I believe this will be the beginning of a new era for humanity, and I am fully committed to doing what it takes for Meta to lead the way.” ...

CoreWeave: Ride Higher Until Lock-Up Expiration

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  CoreWeave rebounded sharply post-IPO, alleviating initial fears about debt and customer concentration with strong Q1 results and surging AI demand. The AI hyperscaler has robust adjusted EBITDA supporting the company’s ability to handle large debt loads, but capital needs remain high. A looming lock-up expiration, limited public float, and significant stock options/warrants could trigger heavy selling pressure in late September. At nearly $190, I’m tepidly bullish but cautious given the stretched valuation, rising debt, and potential dilution from upcoming share unlocks. CoreWeave, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: CRWV ) had a disappointing IPO, but the stock action over the last month has made up for the bad start. The stock of the AI hyperscaler is now up 365% from the IPO price. My investment thesis is tepidly Bullish  with CoreWeave trading up at nearly $184, knowing the lock-up expiration will likely take the stock down. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No...

Under Armour: Positioned For A Turnaround

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Update - June 20, 2025 UA appears set for a run with no real news today. The stock broke the downtrend today.  Original article posted on May 21  Under Armour's turnaround is challenged by tariffs and weak sales, but founding CEO Kevin Plank's return brings renewed focus on innovation and premium products. Product resets and SKU cuts have hurt sales, but new launches like the Uncrushable Hat and No Weigh Backpack show promise for higher-margin growth. The stock remains cheap at only 0.6x forward EV/S targets, while industry peers trade at least 3x the multiple of sales. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » The  Under Armour, Inc.  ( NYSE: UA ) ( NYSE: UAA ) turnaround continues to struggle with the dynamic retail market due to tariffs. The athletic apparel company has made a lot of progress on innovation since founder Kevin Plank  returned to the C...