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IB Net Payout Yields Model

Why Freeport-McMoRan Isn't Expensive Even Above $20

Copper prices have rocketed above even the targets used in the copper miners' presentations. Freeport-McMoRan is highly cash flow positive at copper prices around $2.50 pound. The stock offers interesting value even after the huge surge in the stock price. The recent copper rally apparently caught most investors and analysts off guard. Analysts are either scrambling to upgrade the stock or discredit the rally. The long  misunderstood story  with  Freeport-McMoRan  (NYSE: FCX ) was that the copper miner needed higher prices in order to clear the debt issues. In reality, the current copper prices might be enough for the company to thrive. The question now is when to lock in gains. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Allergan: One Impressive Plan

Allergan recently missed Q3 estimates that should mostly be ignored. The growth pharma has a huge capital return plan that overrides current earnings weakness. The net payout yield will push into one of the top yields in the current market. Allergan  (NYSE: AGN ) hit our radar screen due to the combination of two key signals: plunging stock price and massive capital return plans. The market typically runs away from a stock at the wrong time and these contrary positions can signal the market has the situation wrong. The stock closed last week around multi-year lows of $195. With politicians increasingly attacking drug pricing and the costs in the healthcare system, are the capital return plans enough to consider buying the massive dips in Allergan from a high near $340 back in 2015. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Disney: The Problems At ESPN

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Based on Nielsen's November estimates, ESPN owned by Disney (DIS) is collapsing faster than expected. The networks of ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU all lost over 600K subscribers for November alone.

Weatherford: Recovery Starts Now

Weatherford reported disappointing Q3 results. The company has left the stock for dead while the market is starting to rebound. The stock remains a speculative play in the sector for a catch-up trade. As other industry players trade near multi-year highs,  Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT )  is still trading at the lows. The recent  quarterly results  weren't the best, but the market appears stressed out for no reason. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long WFT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Alphabet: Path To $1,000

After another strong earnings report, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up $12 today to $829. The stock appears on a path to $1,000. RBC Capital Markets tech analyst Mark Mahaney places a $1,025 target on the stock. Alphabet trades at a meager 20 forward P/E multiple making one wonder if the inability to obtain a higher multiple is related to the market cap of nearly $560 billion or the potential problems in Europe. Either way, it appears the stock is on a path to $1,000. More research: Alphabet: Only Takes Minimal Financial Discipline Alphabet: EU Problems Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Acacia Plunges To New Lows

Acacia Comm (ACIA) is down a substantial 12% to below $80 for the first time in months. This move comes ironically after the company rushed out a secondary offering at $100 to allow insiders to dump shares. Per Benzinga , the stock is down as top customers ZTE and ADVA Optical Networking issued soft guidance. ZTE reportedly accounts for 40% of revenues and the weak revenue numbers isn't a good sign for Acacia.

Twitter: Re-Accelerating User Growth Keys Q3 Results

Twitter reported that Q3 results beat estimates, but the market focused on a lack of revenue guidance for Q4. The social-media giant generated further growth in key user metrics that is far more important than revenues at this point. The stock remains one to own around the recent lows. After an initial positive reaction to  Q3 results , Twitter (NYSE: TWTR ) is trading mostly flat. The market appears more focused on the lack of revenue guidance for Q4 over the key re-accelerating user growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.