Monday, October 12, 2009

Poll of the Day: Is the Recession Over?

This is a pretty stunning result from a CNBC poll. While Stone Fox Capital has been claiming that the recession was likely over in the June/July time frame, this poll suggests that only 20% of the people on CNBC think the recession is over 3 months later. On a purely technical basis, the recession is clearly over as Q2 GDP will likely grow at a 3-4% level.

I'd guess that the respondents to this poll follow the jobs market which is one of the biggest mistakes made my investors. The jobs market is a huge lagging indicator. The ability for companies to regain growth while still cutting jobs creates gains in margins leading to higher profits. Those profits lead to jobs growth. Not the other way around. Nobody hires people until they can make money with what they have.

To us this is yet another bullish sign as investors still aren't convinced that the economy has turned even after the NABE calls the recession over.




Did the NABE make the right call, is the recession over? * 2139 responses
Yes
20%
No
73%
Not sure
7.1%
Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

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