Friday, June 1, 2012

Dismal Reaction To Jobs Report

Again, the market is trading with little to no rationality. This action is similar to the bottoms of the last 3 years.

Don't really want to rehash all the news today except to say that the BLS report is continuously incorrect due to seasonal adjustments that are faulty. Normally that is why the jobless claim numbers are used for the leading indicator calculations.

Combine the steady jobless claims with the strong ISM employment index and the Household survey and the jobs picture is a lot stronger then perceived by the market.

Below is a graph from the Calafia Beach Pundit on the jobs data. Does this look like a data point to fear?



The jobs market continues to make steady progress. Anybody using the Establishment survey as the only tool for investing is very misguided.

Will the market bottom next week is impossible to tell? The above data tends to be pushed to extremes and nobody knows what is going to happen with Greece. The jobs data is the US just isn't a reason to sell this market.


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