IB Net Payout Yields Model

Chart of the Day: Dow 5000?

Just amazed to see that a full 36% now and over 40% yesterday voted on this CNBC poll for the DOW to hit 5000 by year end. As they say, its difficult for something so drastic to happen if everybody predicts it.

In a lot of ways, 2010 seems like the opposite of 2008. Everybody expects the Greece/Euro crisis to lead to Lehman II. The world is so different now. Asia and the US are now strong economies without the threat of a banking system collapse. In 2010, Europe has now pounced on the issue before it spread while the US waited too long thinking real estate was contained to sub-prime.

The news of the ban on naked shorting in Germany yesterday likewise drew comparisons to the ban on shorting in the US in Sept 2008. Again, similar sounding situations but likely different outcomes. Germany is no US and naked shorting should be banned.

The comparisons are naturally but to think the results will be similar is too simple minded. Everbody expects that. Good summary from the Reformed Trader on high level of negativity today.

Is David Hefty right? Will the Dow go to 5,000 this year? * 1335 responses
Yes, the Dow could go to 5,000
No, the Dow won't go that low this year
Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.


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