IB Net Payout Yields Model

The Biotech Value Play: Cephalon

Our Growth and Opportunistic Portfolios purchased Cephalon (CEPH) last week during the downturn. Ockham Research has a good summary of the Q1 report. This basically sums up our investment thesis as well so we won't repeat it here.

The company guided towards $7-7.20 for 2010 yet the market continued to sell the stock down into the upper $50s or below 9x guidance. Its interesting that the current highest estimate is only $6.98. Analysts apparently doubt the guidance.

Though trading below the 200EMA is concerning from a technical basis. Today's weak bounce means the stock is likely to lag any rebound in the market. If it doesn't hold, we made trade it for a lower entry. The value thesis just becomes more attractive at lower prices.


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