IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Weekly Jobless Claims at Low of the Year

As Stone Fox Capital posted earlier this week in our new focus Future Stat of the Week [Future Stat of the Week: Weekly Jobless Claims], it's important to pay attention to where economic stats are headed and not so much where they've been.

Today, the government reported that jobless claims declined to 502k for last week which is the lowest level since early January. Anybody sweating last Fridays Jobs report clearly is missing the trend. The 4 week average continued its decline hitting sub 520K. The jobless claims is clearly on a path to sub 500K and then probably closer to 400K in the next couple of months. Knowing that would you short the stock market?

  • The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 502,000 from an upwardly revised 514,000 the previous week. That's the fewest claims since the week ending Jan. 3, and below economists' estimates.
  • The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, dropped to 519,750, the lowest in almost a year. It has fallen by more than 20 percent since its peak in the spring.


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