Sunday, November 22, 2009

Future Stat of the Week: Weekly Jobless Claims Again

Just two weeks ago, Stone Fox Capital talked about the importance of a weekly jobless claims figure below 500K. The number didn't make it reporting in at 505K (502K originally), but that is where the key of understanding the future is a lot of times more important then the number reported.

On Wednesday, the consensus estimate for Weekly Jobless Claims by Bloomberg is 495K. The low estimate is an incredible 460K with the high only 500K which would happen on its own to be a low for this cycle. So while the market sweated the number reported last Thursday, it was without doubt that the next sequence of numbers would be lower and possibly much lower just the next week. Don't fight the trend by sweating weekly nuances. Especially considering we're most likely to see sub-400K numbers before the trend even becomes a question.


Released on 11/25/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/21, 2009

PriorConsensusConsensus Range
New Claims - Level505 K495 K460 K to 500 K

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