IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Chicago PMI Surprises to the Upside

While everybody is focused on the relatively small issue in Dubai (it's a lot smaller then AIG after all), the Chicago PMI reported a fantastic number at 56.1 today. New orders remained strong and inventories were weak. Strong combination for future growth. The estimates were around 53 with expectations of a drop from 54.2 last month. So the number was up with expectations for a mild drop.

The Chicago PMI number bodes well for the ISM Manufacturing Index to be released on Tuesday and the ISM non-Manufacturing number on Thursday.


Gains in new orders and a slowing in deliveries hightlight November's Chicago purchasers' report, offsetting further losses in employment and further draws in inventories. Chicgao's headline index rose nearly 2 points to 56.1 to indicate a month-to-month increase in the pace of overalll business activity in the area. New orders rose 1.4 points to a very strong 62.8, a plus-60 level that, because of its strength, will be hard to match in the coming months. Supplier deliveries rose 6.7 points to 57.4 to indicate a significant slowing in deliveries and congestion in the supply chain. Production, at 56.1, rose in the month but at a slower pace than October's very strong 63.9. Employment, at 41.9, indicates substantial month-to-month contraction but at a less severe pace than October's 38.3 level. Prices paid showed a mild month-to-month increase at 52.6, a result that raises no concern.

This graph probably highlights the current market better then any other. The Chicago PMI is now at levels not seen even prior to the financial implosion. If that isn't a 'V' then I don't know what it would be?


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