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Nebius: Microsoft Home Run

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Update - Oct. 22, 2025

Avride gets a $375 million investment from Nebius Group (NBIS) and Uber Tech. (UBER). The company owned by Nebius is actively planning to launch a robotaxi service with Uber in Dallas and already has delivery robots in Jersey City, Austin and Dallas. 

Nebius has slipped below $100 as the hot stocks continue to selloff this week. The stock is cheap compared to the large AI growth opportunities in the next few years with Avride and other investments mostly overlooked. 

The stock definitely has some short-term trading risk on whether the gap is closed all the way to just above $60. The Microsoft home-run deal would seem to provide more support, but possibly not. 

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Finviz Chart


Update - Oct. 2, 2025

Nebius jumps over $120 on more details from the big Microsoft deal. The market appears overly concerned Microsoft isn't actually looking at Nebius as an AI cloud partner. 

Finviz Chart

The stock is up ~400% since Out Fox The Street subs were told to buy the stock on April 28. 

Originally posted on Sept. 9

  • Nebius Group N.V. just landed a $17.4B, 5-year AI GPU contract with Microsoft, massively exceeding previous revenue expectations.
  • The AI cloud company is uniquely positioned with underappreciated assets and limited debt, enabling aggressive AI infrastructure expansion and further customer growth beyond Microsoft.
  • Despite a sharp after-hours stock jump, Nebius trades at only 4x conservative 2027 ARR estimates, leaving significant upside as the Microsoft deal ramps.
  • While execution and profitability must be proven, NBIS stock remains a compelling buy on dips given its transformative growth trajectory and AI market potential.
In a surprise move, Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) announced a massive AI GPU deal with a big tech giant already using an AI cloud service competitor. The stock has already been a home run pick due to an underappreciated asset base and the ability to fund a lot of AI infrastructure growth without debt. My investment thesis remains Bullish on the stock, with the after-hours valuation not fully factoring in the opportunity ahead.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

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