IB Net Payout Yields Model

Snap: False Rally?

Snap (SNAP) soared the day prior to earnings as the new Lightshed Partners slapped a $20 target on the stock. The market got excited about the call but need to remember that Rich Greenfield had the same target on the stock at his previous firm, BTIG.

The stock rallied back above $14 where the stock appeared a solid short candidate. Even after this rally, Snap hasn't broken the downtrend yet. 

Snap reports after the close on Tuesday with analyst estimates of a $0.05 loss and revenues of $436 million. The company guided to a Q3 loss of $60 to $85 million and investors will want to key on the continuing free cash flow burn. 
The stock has a market cap of $20 billion with a '20 revenue estimate of $2.2 billion. The key remains that value doesn't exist here with the stock near $15, though it's very possible Snap rallies to $20 where the valuation would be insanely stretched. 
More commentary - WhoTrades
Update 10/22
Guidance for Q4 just isn't that impressive
  • Revenue of $540M-$560M (vs. consensus for $553.6M) 
    Adjusted EBITDA between break-even and $20M (vs. a year-ago -$50M)
    214M-215M users vs. 208M.

Disclosure: No position


Popular posts from this blog

Aurora Cannabis: Deal Or No Deal

Occidental: Still Producing Too Much Oil

Celsius: Unaltered Growth Story