Thursday, June 30, 2011

Stat of the Day: Chicago PMI Smashes Double Dip Theory

The Chicago PMI came in today at a seasonally adjusted 61.1 much higher than expectations of a faltering economy. This number showed a nice jump from the 56.6 in May. More importantly the Production and New Orders components accelerated.

With such a strong June report for the manufacturing sector in the Chicago area, the soft patch theory is starting to hold water. Production surged to 66.9 from 56.0 in May while New Orders jumped back over 60 from a very low 53.5 in May. These numbers jive with the rebound in industrial production in Japan during May and June following the disaster in March.

Watch for a stronger ISM Manufacturing report tomorrow. Prior to the Chicago number today, the market expected a rather weak 51.8 which was a drop from last month. Now it wouldn't surprise us to see the number ramp up from the 53.5 in May. The correlation has been very strong in the past. Could a 54-55 number be possible?

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