The report by Zacks was very bullish for the company, but oddly they provided a conservative guidance for the stock with a target of only $16. Typical of conservative firms like Zacks and S&P is that they completely provided low multiples for high growth stocks. A 10 PE? Are they serious? The historical PE for the SP500 has been around 15. This stock is a decade or so away from being SP500 like. So really, a 10 PE???
Ironically the stock soared 12% on Friday to $15.66 or close to the target already. Clearly signs that Zacks has lowballed yet again.
- We are reiterating our Buy recommendation on Gafisa S.A. (NYSE: GFA - News). We have been encouraged by the stimulus package and the new value-added tax relief recently announced by the Brazilian government.
- Fourth quarter 2008 results were lower than expected, which is a clear indication that the international crisis has reached Brazil's construction sector. The recent acquisition of Tenda will enhance the company's presence in the low-income segment, which will be the focus of the Brazilian government. Thus, we expect Gafisa to benefit from the announced program in the following quarters.
- Currently, Gafisa is trading at 7.7x 2009 revised EPS estimate. We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Gafisa, with a target price of US$16.25, representing a valuation between 9x and 10x our 2009 P/E, closer to the Bovespa benchmark for Brazilian stocks.