IB Net Payout Yields Model

Negativity Reigns on the Street

Very interesting that the current market rally only made it to the level prior to the big early March sell off that lead to the March 9th low of 666. Yes the negativity reigns on Wall Street. I'll agree that the rally has been significant and a slight pullback is warranted, but I wouldn't expect any break of 825 on the SP500 which is only slightly lower then today's close of 832.

CNBC did a nice job of summarizing the negativity of pros on their show today. So called expert after expert expect a huge drop in equities for a retest of the lows or at least a 50% retracement to the 740 to 760 range. Only a handful of experts like Cramer and Kass have talked about the rally sustaining without a sizeable pullback. Today Kass talked about a 6% decline which would place us at the 820 level. Too many investors are focused on a bear market rally and are completely missing the turn in the economy. If you read the news today you'll be overwhelmed by the continuing credit losses at the big banks like BAC that reported today. This isn't new news, but for some reason the market is fascinated with the concept today and has decided to completely throw away the revenue side of the equation. After all, most big banks like GS, WFC, and C reported nice proftis last week because revenue overwhelmed credit losses. So the markets focus today on credit losses seems unwarranted and likely to pass quickly.

Maybe the bank stress tests will cause dislocation in the markets. If as I expect the drops today in financials like Regions Financial (RF), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Hartford Financial (HIG) appear to be great buying opportunities.


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