Luminar Technologies: Another Big Order, Still No Respect
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Update - Mar. 22, 2023
- Goldman Sachs cut its rating on Luminar Technologies () to Sell from Neutral.
- Analyst Mark Delaney said the ratings cut reflected margin risk for LAZR and the premium valuation. While the firm continues to see Luminar
- "We see downside to the company's margin outlook with the company targeting revenue per vehicle of ~$1k which we believe implies ASPs roughly 50-100% higher than key competitors for MEMs/solid state lidar. While Luminar attributes this higher ASP in part to software, and we believe it has some opportunities in this regard, the market for ADAS/AV software is highly competitive and we believe both underlying hardware gross margins, and the tailwind from software, could be lower than the company targets (Luminar targets a long term non-GAAP EBIT margin of 35-40+%)."
- In terms of valuation, Delaney noted Luminar is trading at ~4X the EV/2025 revenue estimate, which is rich in comparison to peers with meaningful customer traction.
- Goldman Sachs assigned a price target of $5 to the LiDAR stock.
Update - Feb. 24
Luminar Tech. seeing some follow through buying interest. The market finally appears interested in the large forward order book in the lidar space.
Original article posted on Feb. 23
- Luminar Tech. continues to expand the order book to limited excitement from the stock market.
- The Lidar sensor company likely now has an order book of $5-6 billion over the next 5 years.
- LAZR stock isn't priced for this order book size or the potential for annual revenues to top $1 billion by 2026.