IB Net Payout Yields Model

Luminar Technologies: Guidance Doesn't Warrant A Big Buyback


  • Luminar Technologies continues making progress towards launching series production of Lidar sensors.
  • Unfortunately, the company only guided to 2022 revenues of $40+ million despite an order backlog heading towards $3 billion this year.
  • The company unwisely spent $300 million in share buybacks despite being in a major investment cycle.
  • The stock will likely trade flat until more analyst coverage and actual confidence in the order book turning into future revenues.
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Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ:LAZR) continues to rapidly expand their Lidar sensor order backlog, but the market wants to see more actual revenues. Last year, the company launched a large stock buyback unwarranted based on 2022 guidance. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock until the market has more confidence in the business model and shifts focus to the order book.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - May 5 

The buyback isn't looking so great here... yikes.

-Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.16 misses by $0.03.
-Revenue of $6.86M (+29.2% Y/Y) misses by $1.5M.
Luminar remains on-track to meet or beat its prior $40 million full-year 2022 revenue guidance.
Consensus Revenue Estimate for 2022 is $42.19M


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