IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Leading Indicators Jump Again

The Conference Board reported this morning that Leading Economic Indicators for October came in at 0.9% easily surpassing expectation (how is that considering the numbers are known?).  The leading indicators are usually an accurate predictor of economic conditions in the next months. This number continues to increase at a solid clip.

If only the US market could focus on leading indicators like these and jobless claims and less on Europe.

Not going to spend much time highlighting the individual components because it just doesn't matter. The numbers have been strong and will likely continue as like as monetary policy is accomondative. It likely won't change until investors become overly bullish on the stock market.

The economy will continue rolling along producing jobless claims below expectations, but the stock market will get roiled by Europe. Some day though that will end and this bullish data will matter.

10:02 AM Oct. Leading Indicators: Leading Index +0.9% vs. +0.6% expected, +0.2% prior. Coincident Index +0.2% vs. +0.1% prior. Lagging Index +0.6% vs. +0.2% prior

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining a little momentum by spring. The lack of confidence has been the biggest obstacle in generating forward momentum, domestically or globally. As long as it lasts, there is a glimmer of hope.”


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