IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: NY Fed Says No Recession

The New York Fed has a great chart that I've used in the past that predicts the possibility of a recession over the next year based on the treasury spread between the 10 year bond rate and the 3 month bill rate. The monthly average for July was nearly 3% again suggesting very little odds of a recession. 

The probability of a US recession in the next 12 months predicted by the Treasury Spread is actually below 1%. Recessions just don't happen when the treasury spread is this bullish. Weak ISM reports should be counter balanced with weekly claims below 400K. 

Investors seem to be rushing to judgement based on numbers that bounce around. Recessions have always been caused by the severe tightening of monetary supply which once put into place can't be reversed easily. The recession odds remain very low with corporate profits continuing to soar and monetary policy very positive. 


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