Stat of the Day: NY Fed Says No Recession
The probability of a US recession in the next 12 months predicted by the Treasury Spread is actually below 1%. Recessions just don't happen when the treasury spread is this bullish. Weak ISM reports should be counter balanced with weekly claims below 400K.
Investors seem to be rushing to judgement based on numbers that bounce around. Recessions have always been caused by the severe tightening of monetary supply which once put into place can't be reversed easily. The recession odds remain very low with corporate profits continuing to soar and monetary policy very positive.