IB Net Payout Yields Model

Central European Distribution Hit by Currency

How to play a company hit by currency impacts when reporting in US Dollars, but still thriving in local currencies. Central European Distribution (CEDC) probably has the biggest impact that I've seen so far. The company is still forecasting as much as 25% growth in Poland and Russia, but due to the significant jumps in the Polish Zloty and Russian Ruble the company has cut 2009 forecasts by 35%. The stock price has crumbled and is now down nearly 90% yet the company still maintains huge growth. Maybe as an investor we should hedge our positions with a currency trade. Or maybe we should just buy on the inevitable rebound. Absent the currency impact this company would report $4 eps for '09 to go along with 25% growth. A good market would pay at least $100 for this stock, but it now trades for nearly $10. Or 4x the lowered estimaets of $2.5-2.80.

  • reconfirming full year 2008 net sales guidance of $1.65-$1.80 billion and full year comparable fully diluted earnings per share guidance of $2.85-$3.05.
  • revising full year 2009 net sales guidance from $1.93 - $2.03 billion to $1.25 - $1.40 billion which is based upon an approximate 35% weakening of local currencies (zloty and ruble) since the company's last guidance given in November 2008.
  • fully diluted earnings per share guidance is being revised downward from $3.75-$4.00 to $2.50 - $2.80, due to the above mentioned 35% weakening of local currency
  • guidance given in November 2008 was based upon exchange rates of Polish Zloty to USD of 2.50 to 2.60 and Russian Ruble to USD of 26.00 to 26.50; the revised guidance is based upon exchange rates assumptions of 3.30 to 3.50 for the Polish Zloty to USD and 35.00 to 37.00 for the Russian Ruble to USD.
  • highlights the strong underlying earnings growth of our business of approximately 25% in local currency.
  • We have not experienced any material slow down in our receivables in Russia and Poland to date and continue to see positive cash flows

CEDC is an incredible steal at the currnt price, but it could continue to get cheaper.


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