Out Fox The $treet

Phoenix Cox (PNX) continues to be one of the cheapest stocks in our universe and a small holding in the Growth Portfolio. Looks like analysts are now coming out with 2010 estimates around $.50 to $.60. That's roughly a PE of 5 with the stock trading around $2.5. PNX also trades substantially below book value. Most estimate the real book value to be around $7-8 with the reported book value at $9.8. PNX has traded very weak throughout the first 2 months of 2010, but today it blasted through the 50EMA. This is a very bullish signal of a potential reversal of the trend. If PNX can close above the 50EMA around $2.57, the next move is likely to the 200EMA at $2.87. Its at the 50EMA support as I write this providing an excellent entry point. Look for confirmation by holding that support and eventually surpassing the 200EMA. If it can't hold and then falls back through the 20EMA at $2.42 that would be an ideal time to exit the trade.

Riverbed Tech (RVBD) is the largest holding in our Growth Fund and the new Covestor Model . Today the Networking and Communications Industry which focuses on RVBD and F5 Networks (FFIV) is up big for an unknown reason (at least so far). Both stocks are soaring past 52 week highs. It helps to now be rolling into 2011 estimates of $1.07+ making the PE much more reasonable. The move could also be a technical response. RVBD just broke out of a nearly 7 month consolidation pattern where roughly $25 had served as a triple top resistance. Breaking that mid-February has likely drawn in a ton of technical investors.

The February ISM came in at a respectable 56.5 today. This was lower then the 58.4 from January and the 57.9 expected by economists. Some suggest the weakness was due to the snow which I don't understand why the economists didn't figure that out before hand. Regardless, its still a number showing significant growth in the manufacturing sector. The impressive stat is that inventories continue to be used up coming in at 47.3 which was slightly better then the 46.5 last month but still contracting. It was the 46th consecutive month that inventories have been trimmed. Considering the overall PMI has been positive for 7 consecutive months it seems unlikely that inventories can be cut much farther. Any company able to trim now has to be seeing some impressive margins. Both Caterpillar (CAT) and Terex (TEX), discussed on Q4 earnings call about how they spent all of 2009 producing alot less then they sold. Both forecasted huge production growth as inventories have become too lean and ...

According to this report from Bespoke Investment Group, Sears Holdings (SHLD) tops the list with Eastman Kodak (EK) and AIG as the most disliked stocks by the analyst community. Pretty impressive company to be in the same group as AIG. The contrarian in me suggests that this makes SHLD an excellent investment at these levels. SHLD reported nearly $4 in earnings per share in 2009. Considering how horrible the retail environment was last year, its likely that SHLD will report even better numbers in 2010. Even lowly chain KMart has now turned around its fortunes and actually posted positive comps in Q4. Trading at nearly $100 the PE might seem high at nearly 25 on a trailing basis, but as has been documented numerous times on my website and via other reports SHLD has several assets that aren't properly reflected on its balance sheet such as its real estate. Its worth a lot more just earnings alone. All in all, its strange that only 3 out of 500 stocks in the SP500 have a 50% sell r...

After a year when Natural Gas inventories hit record levels, it might surprise people to see that the weekly report is now showing inventory levels only 0.7% above the 5 year average. In fact, the important East market is 2.4% below that average. With weak industrial demand, its likely surprising to most that storage levels are now inline with normal trends. Alot of the burn down has been due to the gruesome weather especially the record snows in the East. Regardless, though the more normal inventory levels set us up for higher prices as demand returns. To us, the natural gas stocks still reflect a return to prices in the $6-7 range and therefore we are more bullish on coal. For electricity demand or thermal coal, we remain bullish on Cloud Peak Energy (CLD). A return to higher natural gas prices will push more utilities back to goal as a substitute fuel. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) is another favorite, but we like it most for its coking coal used in making steel. Both will benefit ...

As we wrote yesterday on the Consumer Confidence report, the market drop was as technical as it was related to the supposed lack of confidence. We mentioned that the 20/250EMAs were very crucial junctures and it's not surprising to see the market drop back down to test the support before continuing the rebound. Today, we saw a solid bounce back above the support. Now any move about the 1110 -1112 range will likely lead to a retest of the 1150 highs and possibly a move to the pre Lehman levels of 1200-1250.

After losing 8.4M jobs during this recession, a jobs bill that is estimated to only add 250,000 jobs seems rather worthless to pursue. After all, we're talking about a lot of rules and regulations that must be adhered to in order to qualify not to mention the accounting work that it takes to work out that numbers and track which employees do and don't qualify for these tax breaks. Mark Zandi is a very credible economists so we'll go with his numbers. They pretty much sum up the bill. Too little and too much work to track. The new hiring tax credit could spur about 250,000 new jobs, according to economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com. The economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December, 2007. The new bill will exempt small businesses from paying the 6.2% Social Security tax until December and a potential $1,000 credit if they remain employed for a year. Plus it provides funds for federal transport projects to the tune of $20B. The 2nd part so...