IB Net Payout Yields Model

Luminar: Building The Order Book, But Not Cheap


  • Luminar continues to add partnerships and build their order book beyond the $1.8 billion target for 2021.
  • The company continues to supply lidar sensors to the biggest players in the auto sector, including a surprise test with Tesla.
  • The stock has limited upside trading at 8.5x 2025 revenue targets.
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The lidar space remains the Wild West of the public stock market where companies went public via SPACs at high valuations based on current revenues. Luminar Technologies (LAZR) is the leader in the space with connections to the biggest auto companies and the first to go public, but the stock remains at an elevated valuation. My investment thesis is more Neutral on Luminar after the recent sell-off leaves the stock closer to the lows.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - June 29
Not a good sign for insiders wanting out at $22.

-Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ:LAZR) files for 9M shares of Class A stock offering by selling shareholders, representing ~2.6% outstanding stock.
-The Selling stockholder will retain 96,118,203 shares of Class B common stock.
-Underwriters' over-allotment is an additional 1.35M shares of Class A stock.
-The company will not receive any proceeds from this offering.

Update - June 25

Still see analysts far too bullish on this lidar stock in comparison to others, though a $30 price target on a $25 stock isn't exactly a very bullish call. 

Finviz Chart

-Seeing the company positioned to outperform its peers this year, Baird upgrades Luminar (NASDAQ:LAZR) from Neutral to Outperform with a $30 price target.

-The firm sees the lidar sensor company "well positioned to upward-revise its order book and raise its medium-term revenue outlook, driven by the standard adoption of L3 hardware in next-generation vehicles including with Volvo."

Update - June 2

The stock is up 15% today for no apparent reason. The move could just be technical as Luminar bounces off the upward slopping trend around $20 and broke resistance around $22.50. The stock remains the most expensive lidar stock by far. 

Finviz Chart

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