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Aurora Innovation: Commercialization Approaches, But Potholes Still Exist

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Update - May 1, 2025

Aurora Innovation finally launches, now let's see if the ramp can begin. The stock is likely expensive for the limited revenues of the next few years due to the slow ramp. 

-Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR) announced on Thursday that it launched its commercial self-driving trucking service in Texas. The autonomous technology company began regular driverless customer deliveries between Dallas and Houston this week after completing its safety case. To date, the Aurora Driver has completed over 1,200 miles without a driver. The milestone makes Aurora the first company to operate a commercial self-driving service with heavy-duty trucks on public roads.

-Aurora's (NASDAQ:AUR) flagship product, the Aurora Driver, is an SAE L4 self-driving system that is first being deployed in long-haul trucking. The launch customers are Uber Freight (UBER) and Hirschbach Motor Lines, a veteran-owned carrier that delivers time- and temperature-sensitive freight. Both companies have had long-standing supervised commercial pilots with Aurora (NASDAQ:AUR).

-Looking ahead, Aurora (AUR) plans to expand its driverless service to El Paso, Texas and Phoenix, Arizona by the end of 2025. The Pittsburgh-based company highlighted that most U.S. states today allow for driverless vehicles, including Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. As Aurora (AUR) opens new routes, it said it will continue to work with stakeholders to ensure there is visibility into the company's progress.

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Original article posted on Feb. 19

  • Aurora Innovation is pursuing commercialization of driverless trucks, starting with a Dallas to Houston lane launch in April, but faces years of uncertain revenue ramp-up.
  • Despite significant advancements, the company still requires heavy investments, burning $645 million in cash last year, with a market cap of $16.5 billion.
  • Aurora's valuation is extreme, with limited revenue expected in the near term and a positive gross profit margin only anticipated by 2026.
  • Investors should consider cashing out due to the stock's rich valuation, heavy future losses, and potential dilution before reaching substantial revenue milestones.
After a slow start as a public company, Aurora Innovation, Inc. (NASDAQ:AUR) is finally aggressively pursuing the commercialization of driverless truck technology. Unlike other pre-revenue firms, the stock has maintained a rich valuation heading into the much-anticipated launch event. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock as the ramp-up to material revenues is still years away and uncertain.


Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

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