IB Net Payout Yields Model

Roblox: Already Priced For Next Growth Mode

Update - Apr. 17, 2023

Great monthly numbers for March, but the stock got too expensive. Roblox is now down 12% on the news, as the stock was trading near 10x forward sales estimates. The stock is much more appealing in the mid-$30s. 

-Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares fell 12% premarket on Monday after the video-game company reported user metrics for March 2023.

-Average bookings per daily active user (ABPDAU) were between $3.73 and $3.85, implying a year-over-year change of -2% - +1%. The change in year-over-year March 2023 ABPDAU would have been between -1% and 3% on constant currency.

-Daily active users grew were 66.2M, up 26% Y/Y but was down from 67.3M in February. Hours engaged were 4.8B, up 26% Y/Y.

Finviz Chart

Update - Mar. 14, 2023

Great numbers in February with growth in the 20% range.... would be nice to see a weaker stock price. 

  • Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) said its February revenue is estimated at between $214M and $217M, up 20% to 22% on a yearly basis.
  • Daily active users rose 22% on a yearly basis to 67.3M.
  • Hours engaged during the month were 4.6B, up 24% Y/Y.
  • The online entertainment company is estimated to have made bookings of between $243M and $247M, up 18% to 19% from last year. 
  • Estimated average bookings per daily active user is between $3.61 and $3.67, a decline of between 2% to 4% Y/Y.

  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street. Learn More » 

Update - Mar. 10

Roblox has $150M in deposits with $SIVB... should get it all back, but it's not a risk to the business either way.

-Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) dipped 0.6% after hours Friday as it joined companies commenting on their cash holdings at Silicon Valley Bank, which failed Friday and was closed down by California.
-Roblox said in an SEC filing that about 5% of its cash and securities balance (of $3B) is held at Silicon Valley Bank - or about $150M.
-"Thus, regardless of the ultimate outcome and the timing, this situation will have no impact on the day to day operation of the company," Roblox said in its filing.

Update - Feb. 23, 2023

Roblox close the gap up for the big Q4'22 earnings report. The stock entered the ideal buy point below $36 and already closed up $1.50 from the lows. 

Finviz Chart

Roblox trades at 6x '24 sales targets, but the stock isn't likely to get much cheaper. 

Update - Feb. 21, 2023

Roblox below $38 today sets up a prime buying opportunity when the gap is closed below $36.

 Finviz Chart

Original article posted on Feb. 19

  • Roblox Corporation soared following strong Q4 2022 earnings results.
  • The gaming platform reported January '23 DAUs surged 19% YoY to 65 million, setting up strong growth.
  • Roblox Corporation stock is already fully valued at a forward EV/S multiple of 7x.
In no surprise, Roblox Corporation (NYSE:RBLX) is back to a growth machine after the covid boost rolled off. The market has a far more positive view of the company now, though user growth has been strong all

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 


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