IB Net Payout Yields Model

American Airlines: Flying Higher With Or Without You


  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street. Learn More » 

Update - Jan. 13

Comical that $AAL is down on this guidance from $DAL. Delta lost a lot of money last Q1 and the airline is still guiding to a $7+ EPS in 2024. The stock should hit $100 next year, yet investors aren't sure whether to pay $40 fro Delta... pure insanity. 

-Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) stock slipped in premarket trading on Friday after the carrier offered lighter than expected Q1 EPS guide.

-For the fourth quarter reported on Friday, the Atlanta-based airline posted $1.48 in adjusted earnings per share and $13.44, both of which cruised past the analyst consensus. The carrier also noted an adjusted operating operating margin of 11.6% for the quarter and $10.89B in passenger revenue, above the $10.6B consensus expectation.

-“As we move into 2023, the industry backdrop for air travel remains favorable and Delta is well positioned to deliver significant earnings and free cash flow growth,” CEO Ed Bastian commented. “We expect to grow 2023 revenue by 15 to 20 percent and improve unit costs year-over-year, supporting a full-year outlook for earnings of $5 to $6 per share and keeping us on track to achieve more than $7 of earnings per share in 2024.”

-"For the March quarter, we expect non-fuel unit costs to increase 3% to 4% year-over-year, including a full quarter impact from labor cost increases and finalizing the rebuild of our network for the peak summer period,” he said.

-Due in large part to these impacts, an EPS forecast of $0.15 to $0.40 for Q1 was well short of expectations. Wall Street had anticipated a report of $0.64 for the March-ended quarter.


Original article posted on Jan. 12

  • American Airlines pre-announced very strong Q4'22 results.
  • The legacy airline forecasts earning an amazing $1.15 profit in the December quarter.
  • The stock only trades at 5x normalized EPS targets that might be low based on these numbers.

In no huge surprise to people following the research here, American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) pre-announced a strong quarter as the earnings season starts to ramp up. The airline remains priced for the next Covid shutdown while profits

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: Long AAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 


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