SoFi: Back To Where It Started
- SoFi is cheap with the stock trading a the de-SPAC lows.
- The fintech continues to make great progress towards approval on the bank charter that will save up to 200 basis points on loan costs and improve revenues.
- The stock is too cheap trading at ~10x original '24 adjusted EBITDA targets.
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Despite a very promising start, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) now trades back to where the stock traded at the time of the de-SPAC transaction last May. The fintech super app was a buy the last couple of times the stock fell below $15 and nothing has changed now. My investment thesis remains Bullish on SoFi now down at $13 following a nearly 50% dip after multiple trips above $24.
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Update - Mar. 14
Cheaper by the minute despite strong Q4'21 results and decent guidance considering the ongoing issue with the government student loan payment moratorium lasting until May now.
-Q1 adjusted net revenue of $280M-$285M vs. $303.6M consensus. The Q1 guidance incorporates a $30M-$35M negative impact to revenue from the extension of the federal student loan payment moratorium to May 1, 2022. For adjusted EBITDA, it expects $0M-$5M vs. Visible Alpha consensus of $19.4M.
Update - Jan. 18
The stock is now cratering to new lows. The market is now starting to get ridiculous with the high quality names selling off over 50% from the highs.