Trulieve Cannabis: Big Florida Risk

 

• Trulieve Cannabis faces far more competition in Florida now than at the end of 2020.
• At least 3 or 4 stronger MSOs have entered the state to absorb a substantial amount of the growth in the state.
• The MSO faces risk that Q2 revenues will miss targets and the company will face margin pressure in Florida while expanding in other states with lower margins.
• The stock isn't expensive at a 3.3x forward EV/S multiple, but Trulieve isn't likely to rally in the face of any slowing organic growth.
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The U.S. cannabis space has been on a major growth trajectory over the last few years. While the MSO (multi-state operator) space has plenty of growth catalysts ahead, not every company has the same opportunity. My investment thesis is more Neutral on Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX:TCNNF) as the MSO faces far stronger competition in Florida after a period of competing against mainly weak operators in the space.

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Update - Sept. 1

Another potential tough competitor in FL as $PLNHF buys the license from $HRVSF to complete the deal with $TCNNF.

-Harvest Health & Recreation Inc. ("Harvest") (CSE: HARV, OTCQX: HRVSF), a vertically integrated cannabis company and multi-state operator in the U.S., today announced the signing of a definitive agreement to divest its Medical Marijuana Treatment Center license issued by the Florida Department of Health.

-Planet 13 Holdings Inc. (CSE:PLTH) (OTCQB:PLNHF) ("Planet 13") has agreed to purchase the license for $55 million in cash. The planned divestiture includes the sale of the license only and does not include any planned or operational facilities.