Out Fox The $treet

Update - June 11, 2025 Ouster surged 27% today on news of their digital Lidar being approved by the DoD for the Blue UAS Framework. The company doesn't have any news on actual contracts, but Ouster is now set up for future drone contracts.  -Ouster (NASDAQ:OUST) shares jumped 21% premarket on Wednesday after its OS1 digital lidar was approved by the Department of Defense for use in unmanned aerial systems.-Following a review of components and cybersecurity testing, the Defense Innovation Unit approved and added the Ouster OS1 to the Blue UAS Framework. The Ouster OS1 becomes the first high-resolution 3D lidar sensor approved under the Blue UAS Framework. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May 9 Ouster, Inc. reported strong Q1 2025 results with a solid revenue beat, signaling a potential inflection point. The company recently announced seve...

  Broadcom's AI business is growing rapidly but remains a small portion of its $1.2T valuation, making the stock richly priced for its current AI exposure. AI revenues are forecast to reach $5.1B in FQ3, with custom AI accelerators and networking driving growth, but overall sales growth is less impressive. Despite a $10B buyback and strong margins, future sales growth is projected below 20%, and AI's lower margins limit further profitability leverage. The stock already trades at 14x FY27 sales targets, boosted by AI growing at a 60% clip, though Broadcom appears headed higher in the short term. Broadcom Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AVGO ) ( NEOE: AVGO:CA ) is a massive technology infrastructure company, shifting the focus into AI infrastructure. The company makes promising custom AI chips for industry leaders, but the market is already pricing in a  lot of AI excitement. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock, with the breakout prior to earnings likely dictating the stock price ...

Update - May 28, 2025 C3.ai reported a FQ4 beat, but subscription revenues only grew 9% with all of the growth coming from prioritized professional services.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.16 beats by $0.04. -Revenue of $108.72M (+25.5% Y/Y) beats by $1.02M. FY26 guidance is a very wide range with the suggestion the low end is due to geopolitical risks, though those risks have disappeared of late. The guidance suggests revenues of $464 million versus consensus estimates around $466 million for growth of 20%.  Original article posted on May 21 C3.ai, Inc. trades back at yearly lows despite reporting strong growth in the last year. The enterprise AI software company has a ramping set of pilot deals and a surge in potential new agreements due to an AI partnership with Microsoft Azure. Despite current losses, C3.ai maintains a robust cash position and is prioritizing customer acquisition over immediate profitability to capture the generative AI opportunity. AI stock is cheap, trading at...

Update - May 27, 2025 Trump Media is selling $1.5B in stock and issuing $1B in senior convertible notes to buy cryptocurrencies in an odd move, probably due to the social media failing to gain any traction. Investors have no reason to buy this stock for bitcoin, instead of just front running Trump.  -Trump Media and Technology Group ( NASDAQ: DJT )  plans to raise  $2.5B in stock and senior secured notes in a private placement with ~50 institutional investors in which to create the largest Bitcoin treasury of a public company. -“We view Bitcoin as  an apex instrument of financial freedom, and now Trump Media will hold cryptocurrency as a crucial part of our assets…and help defend our company against harassment and discrimination by financial institutions,” said Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes. Original Article posted on January 29 President Trump has appeared to focus on meme coins over improving Trump Media, leading to a lack of promotion for Truth Social. Meme coins TR...

Update - May 16, 2025 Archer Aviation has rallied to $14 today on the news yesterday regarding the LA28 Olympics. The stock had rallied nearly 100% in less than a month and probably needs to consolidate here with the market cap topping $7 billion.  -Archer Aviation announced on Thursday that the company was selected as the Official Air Taxi Provider of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic and Paralympic Games. Through the exclusive partnership, Archer's Midnight eVTOL aircraft will be integrated across the LA Olympic Games in various ways, such as transporting VIPs, fans, and stakeholders transportation, while also electrifying vertiport take-off-and-landing hubs for key venues and providing support for emergency services and security. -The company said it will introduce its Midnight eVTOL aircraft to Los Angeles in partnership with the LA Olympics organization. The event is expected to host over 15 million visitors and broadcast to billions of viewers globally over the course of the Games...

Update - May 6, 2025 The fintech has slipped to $50 despite a big quarter likely due to not hiking guidance.  Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.03  beats by $0.16 . Revenue of $213.37M (+66.7% YoY)   beats by $12.11M . Upstart signed a forward-flow agreement for $1.2 billion with Fortress Investment Group. The main issue with numbers is likely guidance just generally matching current estimates.  Q2 Revenues of $225 million vs. consensus at $226 million 2025 Revenues at $1.01 billion vs. consensus at $1.01 billion.  The stock dips to a $4 billion market cap at the $42 after-hours price, or 4x sales targets. Upstart just traded down below $40, so the stock likely bounces at this level.  Update - Apr. 5, 2025 Upstart has entered the buy zone on the dip to nearly $30. The AI lending stock has just been crushed after rallying to $90. The company will have to report a serious pullback to lending to warrant this dip.  Original article posted on Mar. 30 Upstart Holdings...

Update - May 1, 2025 Aurora Innovation finally launches, now let's see if the ramp can begin. The stock is likely expensive for the limited revenues of the next few years due to the slow ramp.  -Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR) announced on Thursday that it launched its commercial self-driving trucking service in Texas. The autonomous technology company began regular driverless customer deliveries between Dallas and Houston this week after completing its safety case. To date, the Aurora Driver has completed over 1,200 miles without a driver. The milestone makes Aurora the first company to operate a commercial self-driving service with heavy-duty trucks on public roads. -Aurora's (NASDAQ:AUR) flagship product, the Aurora Driver, is an SAE L4 self-driving system that is first being deployed in long-haul trucking. The launch customers are Uber Freight (UBER) and Hirschbach Motor Lines, a veteran-owned carrier that delivers time- and temperature-sensitive freight. Both companies have...

  The Trade Desk has dropped from over $140 to below $50 due to fears of an ad market slowdown and reduced growth targets. The digital ad platform only has a fraction of a nearly $1 trillion ad market providing huge growth opportunities for the years ahead. The stock is more attractive at 22x EPS targets, but the business is going through a rough patch elevating short-term risks. The Trade Desk, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: TTD ) has slumped due to fears of an ad market slowdown while the company has previously pulled back from aggressive growth targets. The digital ad platform now trades at a more reasonable  stock valuation after falling from over $140 to below $50. My investment thesis is more Bullish on the stock while looking for a bottom on the falling knife. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Apr. 14, 2025  Serve Robotics was chased into the $20s, but doesn't appear very loved in the $5s now. The only change to the story is the better understanding of the new 2,000 delivery robots pushed out towards 2026 with the delivery dates very late in 2025.  Original article published on March 19 Serve Robotics faces significant expansion challenges, aiming to grow from 50 to 2,000 delivery robots by year-end, with revenues lagging behind expectations. The stock has dropped to $7, presenting a more appealing entry point, despite anticipated volatility and potential revenue disappointments in the short term. The company raised $80 million, boosting its cash reserves to over $200 million, but must improve robot productivity and manage escalating costs. Investors should consider buying shares now, but be prepared for a bumpy ride as Serve Robotics scales operations and strives to meet aggressive financial targets. As investors were warned,  Serve Robotics Inc. ...

  AppLovin's stock has dropped significantly from its peak due to fears and short attacks. The company excels in AI advertising for mobile games, with ad revenues surging 73% in Q4 2024, and is expanding into e-commerce and connected TV ad markets. AppLovin's efficiency is notable, with a 62% adjusted EBITDA margin and $2.1 billion in free cash flow, before divesting the Apps business. Despite short-seller concerns, the stock remains a promising AI ad tech company, trading at sub 20x EPS targets on a gap close to $175. AppLovin Corporation  ( NASDAQ: APP ) is a prime example of how good stocks with explosive gains shouldn't be chased. The stock soared after reporting great results for 2024 and guiding up Q1  '25  results, sending AppLovin to a record high, but the stock is now down over $300 from the peak due to fears, short attacks and economic fears. My investment thesis is ultra-Bullish on the stock due to the e-commerce advertising opportunity, especially on a di...

Update - March 28, 2025 LendingClub with an interesting re-test of $10. The economy has to slump into a recession to warrant even this price, which is below TBV.  Original article posted on Jan. 30 LendingClub disappointed the market with conservative guidance for 2025. The fintech's potential remains high, with plans to double loan originations over time and expand into new investment products, including a rated structured certificate program. LC stock is attractive at less than 10x peak earnings potential, but patience is required for full growth realization. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » LendingClub Corporation  ( NYSE: LC ) is under pressure after 2025 guidance failed to impress. The online lending platform guided to solid growth for the next year, but the company isn't expanding business as aggressively as desired  by the market. My  investm...

Update - March 21, 2025 Quantum Day didn't go very well. Rigetti CEO appeared to double-down on current quantum technology not being very useful.  Original article posted on Mar. 19 Rigetti Computing, Inc. reported weak Q4 results, with revenues dipping YoY. Nvidia's Quantum Day at the GTC 2025 event could temporarily boost Rigetti's stock based on quantum computing hype. Rigetti's CEO continues to emphasize limited commercial sales in the near future, relying heavily on government contracts and R&D milestones for now. Investors should consider cashing out if the stock surges due to the Nvidia event, as true commercialization is still 5 years away. The quantum computing space could see a major pop on any announcements coming out of the Quantum Day at the  Nvidia  ( NVDA ) GTC 2025 event this week.  Rigetti Computing, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RGTI ) just  reported  weak Q4 results  and investors should hone in on the actual prospects of the quantum busi...

  Viking Therapeutics' hit yearly lows despite strong sector expectations, as it enters pivotal trials for obesity drugs. The biotech announced a production deal with CordenPharma, signaling confidence in FDA approval and eliminating the need for capital-intensive manufacturing facilities. The $150 million prepayment deal with CordenPharma ensures production capacity ensures production capacity for 1 billion oral tablets and billions in annual revenues. The stock only has a market cap of $3 billion after this dip, despite the potential for billions in sales and a peer trading at 12.5x sales targets. The obesity drug sector has taken a significant hit despite ongoing strong expectations for weight-loss drugs. The sector dip has left  Viking Therapeutics, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: VKTX ) at yearly lows just as the biotech enters pivotal trials for their  obesity drugs. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock following the latest dip and game-changing ...

Update - March 10, 2025 Reddit ended down 20% and over 50% from the highs.  The stock needs to close the gap to $80, before Reddit gets appealing.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Feb. 3 Reddit's current growth rate is unsustainable with U.S. DAU growth decelerating and future growth likely to be challenging, similar to other social media stocks. The stock trades at over 20x forward sales, a multiple other social media stocks were unable to sustain. Investors should be cautious; while Reddit may report strong Q4 results, sustaining growth to justify its current stock price is uncertain. The stock market has an established history of smacking down social media stocks when the major growth phase ends.  Reddit, Inc.  ( NYSE: RDDT ) will ultimately face this outcome when the current spectacular growth phase normalizes. My...

Update - Mar.7, 2025 A CEO led deal right now makes no sense with shipping rates set to collapse and the Drewry World Container Index already down to $2,541. -ZIM Integrated Shipping (NYSE: ZIM) +7% - Shares soared amid takeover speculation, following reports that CEO Eli Glickman is exploring a management-led buyout of the Israel-based shipping firm. According to a StreetInsider report citing an unidentified source, Glickman is working with advisers on a potential bid, though it remains unclear whether his efforts will materialize or if the board will be receptive. The company is set to report its Q4 earnings on Wednesday. Original article posted on January 21.   ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. faces a bearish outlook due to the expected collapse in shipping rates following the end of the Red Sea disruption on a Hamas/Israel ceasefire. The container shipping market faces a potential 25% tonnage oversupply and an 11% drop in TEU-mile demand by the sector returning to the Suez...

IonQ continues to decline due to fading quantum computing hype and self-inflicted setbacks, despite impressive revenue growth from 2023 levels. The company guided to sequentially lower Q1 revenue and stopped reporting bookings, raising doubts about its ambitious $1 billion sales goal by 2030. CEO Peter Chapman's move to Executive Chairman and the decision to raise another $500 million have further shaken investor confidence. The stock still trades at a very expensive 65x forward sales. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » IonQ, Inc.  ( NYSE: IONQ ) continues to roll over as the quantum computing hype fades. Along with the Q4 earnings report, the company made several moves that were self-inflicted as far as reducing the hype. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bearish on the stock due to the massive valuation multiples, even after the stock has already fall...