Out Fox The $treet

  The Trade Desk has dropped from over $140 to below $50 due to fears of an ad market slowdown and reduced growth targets. The digital ad platform only has a fraction of a nearly $1 trillion ad market providing huge growth opportunities for the years ahead. The stock is more attractive at 22x EPS targets, but the business is going through a rough patch elevating short-term risks. The Trade Desk, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: TTD ) has slumped due to fears of an ad market slowdown while the company has previously pulled back from aggressive growth targets. The digital ad platform now trades at a more reasonable  stock valuation after falling from over $140 to below $50. My investment thesis is more Bullish on the stock while looking for a bottom on the falling knife. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Apr. 14, 2025  Serve Robotics was chased into the $20s, but doesn't appear very loved in the $5s now. The only change to the story is the better understanding of the new 2,000 delivery robots pushed out towards 2026 with the delivery dates very late in 2025.  Original article published on March 19 Serve Robotics faces significant expansion challenges, aiming to grow from 50 to 2,000 delivery robots by year-end, with revenues lagging behind expectations. The stock has dropped to $7, presenting a more appealing entry point, despite anticipated volatility and potential revenue disappointments in the short term. The company raised $80 million, boosting its cash reserves to over $200 million, but must improve robot productivity and manage escalating costs. Investors should consider buying shares now, but be prepared for a bumpy ride as Serve Robotics scales operations and strives to meet aggressive financial targets. As investors were warned,  Serve Robotics Inc. ...

  AppLovin's stock has dropped significantly from its peak due to fears and short attacks. The company excels in AI advertising for mobile games, with ad revenues surging 73% in Q4 2024, and is expanding into e-commerce and connected TV ad markets. AppLovin's efficiency is notable, with a 62% adjusted EBITDA margin and $2.1 billion in free cash flow, before divesting the Apps business. Despite short-seller concerns, the stock remains a promising AI ad tech company, trading at sub 20x EPS targets on a gap close to $175. AppLovin Corporation  ( NASDAQ: APP ) is a prime example of how good stocks with explosive gains shouldn't be chased. The stock soared after reporting great results for 2024 and guiding up Q1  '25  results, sending AppLovin to a record high, but the stock is now down over $300 from the peak due to fears, short attacks and economic fears. My investment thesis is ultra-Bullish on the stock due to the e-commerce advertising opportunity, especially on a di...

Update - Apr. 5, 2025 Upstart has entered the buy zone on the dip to nearly $30. The AI lending stock has just been crushed after rallying to $90. The company will have to report a serious pullback to lending to warrant this dip.  Original article posted on Mar. 30 Upstart Holdings faces economic weakness fears, though loan origination and conversion rates have improved. The AI lending platform aims for $1 billion in 2025 revenue, further expanding into auto lending and HELOC markets. The key UMI index already suggests a tough lending environment, with ultimate upside on an improving market in the next 1 to 2 years. The stock is cheap at 4x sales targets, but investors should wait for better buy signals due to elevated short-term risks in fintech lending platforms. Upstart Holdings, Inc.   ( UPST )  has completely rolled over with other fintech lending stocks due to fears over economic weakness ahead leading to defaults and bank partners pulling back from lending. The sto...

Update - March 28, 2025 LendingClub with an interesting re-test of $10. The economy has to slump into a recession to warrant even this price, which is below TBV.  Original article posted on Jan. 30 LendingClub disappointed the market with conservative guidance for 2025. The fintech's potential remains high, with plans to double loan originations over time and expand into new investment products, including a rated structured certificate program. LC stock is attractive at less than 10x peak earnings potential, but patience is required for full growth realization. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » LendingClub Corporation  ( NYSE: LC ) is under pressure after 2025 guidance failed to impress. The online lending platform guided to solid growth for the next year, but the company isn't expanding business as aggressively as desired  by the market. My  investm...

Update - March 21, 2025 Quantum Day didn't go very well. Rigetti CEO appeared to double-down on current quantum technology not being very useful.  Original article posted on Mar. 19 Rigetti Computing, Inc. reported weak Q4 results, with revenues dipping YoY. Nvidia's Quantum Day at the GTC 2025 event could temporarily boost Rigetti's stock based on quantum computing hype. Rigetti's CEO continues to emphasize limited commercial sales in the near future, relying heavily on government contracts and R&D milestones for now. Investors should consider cashing out if the stock surges due to the Nvidia event, as true commercialization is still 5 years away. The quantum computing space could see a major pop on any announcements coming out of the Quantum Day at the  Nvidia  ( NVDA ) GTC 2025 event this week.  Rigetti Computing, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RGTI ) just  reported  weak Q4 results  and investors should hone in on the actual prospects of the quantum busi...

  Viking Therapeutics' hit yearly lows despite strong sector expectations, as it enters pivotal trials for obesity drugs. The biotech announced a production deal with CordenPharma, signaling confidence in FDA approval and eliminating the need for capital-intensive manufacturing facilities. The $150 million prepayment deal with CordenPharma ensures production capacity ensures production capacity for 1 billion oral tablets and billions in annual revenues. The stock only has a market cap of $3 billion after this dip, despite the potential for billions in sales and a peer trading at 12.5x sales targets. The obesity drug sector has taken a significant hit despite ongoing strong expectations for weight-loss drugs. The sector dip has left  Viking Therapeutics, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: VKTX ) at yearly lows just as the biotech enters pivotal trials for their  obesity drugs. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock following the latest dip and game-changing ...

Update - March 10, 2025 Reddit ended down 20% and over 50% from the highs.  The stock needs to close the gap to $80, before Reddit gets appealing.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Feb. 3 Reddit's current growth rate is unsustainable with U.S. DAU growth decelerating and future growth likely to be challenging, similar to other social media stocks. The stock trades at over 20x forward sales, a multiple other social media stocks were unable to sustain. Investors should be cautious; while Reddit may report strong Q4 results, sustaining growth to justify its current stock price is uncertain. The stock market has an established history of smacking down social media stocks when the major growth phase ends.  Reddit, Inc.  ( NYSE: RDDT ) will ultimately face this outcome when the current spectacular growth phase normalizes. My...

Update - Mar.7, 2025 A CEO led deal right now makes no sense with shipping rates set to collapse and the Drewry World Container Index already down to $2,541. -ZIM Integrated Shipping (NYSE: ZIM) +7% - Shares soared amid takeover speculation, following reports that CEO Eli Glickman is exploring a management-led buyout of the Israel-based shipping firm. According to a StreetInsider report citing an unidentified source, Glickman is working with advisers on a potential bid, though it remains unclear whether his efforts will materialize or if the board will be receptive. The company is set to report its Q4 earnings on Wednesday. Original article posted on January 21.   ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. faces a bearish outlook due to the expected collapse in shipping rates following the end of the Red Sea disruption on a Hamas/Israel ceasefire. The container shipping market faces a potential 25% tonnage oversupply and an 11% drop in TEU-mile demand by the sector returning to the Suez...

IonQ continues to decline due to fading quantum computing hype and self-inflicted setbacks, despite impressive revenue growth from 2023 levels. The company guided to sequentially lower Q1 revenue and stopped reporting bookings, raising doubts about its ambitious $1 billion sales goal by 2030. CEO Peter Chapman's move to Executive Chairman and the decision to raise another $500 million have further shaken investor confidence. The stock still trades at a very expensive 65x forward sales. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » IonQ, Inc.  ( NYSE: IONQ ) continues to roll over as the quantum computing hype fades. Along with the Q4 earnings report, the company made several moves that were self-inflicted as far as reducing the hype. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bearish on the stock due to the massive valuation multiples, even after the stock has already fall...

Update - Feb. 28, 2025 Nextdoor reported another strong quarter.  Q4 Revenue of $65.23M (+17.4% Y/Y)  beats by $2.11M . Adjusted EBITDA was $3.0 million, compared to a $14.0 million loss in the year-ago period, reflecting 30 percentage points of year-over-year margin improvement. The social media company guided to weak Q1 results due to going full speed ahead with the NEXT UI updates. This is great news for  investors, but the stock is down some 30% due to the markets short-term focus.  The stock trades at near cash value of $427 million.  Originally posted on Nov. 8 Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Nextdoor has achieved a significant turnaround under the return of founding CEO Nirav Tolia, with 17% revenue growth and record WAUs. The company nearly eliminated losses, reporting a Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of just $1 million, and expects to be cas...

Updated - Feb. 21, 2025 Hims & Hers Health isn't reliant on GLP-1 shortages. Not sure why news reports keep making this false claim, but the stock is down 20% today on the FDA ending the semagultide shortage status.  -The U.S. FDA announced Friday that it would refrain from penalizing makers of compounded versions of Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) weight loss/obesity drugs for two more months as supply conditions for the GLP-1s improve after an official end to their shortage. -Earlier in the day, the agency declared that the nationwide shortage of the highly popular GLP-1s, collectively known as semaglutide, is resolved after nearly three years. -“The FDA confirmed with the drug’s manufacturer that their stated product availability and manufacturing capacity can meet the present and projected national demand,” the regulator said. -Hims & Hers (NYSE:HIMS), which made compounded versions of semaglutide amid the shortage, lost billions of dollars in market cap in reaction as the telehea...

  Unity Software's Q4 results showed progress, but the company still faces challenges, with 2025 being another transition year. The company reported mixed Q4 numbers with a 25% sales drop, but the strategic portfolio sales grew 4% YoY. Unity's new AI ad tech product, Vector, promises future growth, but the transition will impact revenues in the short term, leading to weak Q1 guidance. The stock is back up to ~7x forward EV/S targets, expensive for a company with limited to no growth. Unity Software Inc.  ( NYSE: U ) soared on Q4 results, but the software company didn't report the huge turnaround insinuated by the stock gain. The game engine company is poised for a turnaround, but the business still has a long  road ahead. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock, with 2025 being another transition year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more deters. 

Update - Feb. 12, 2025 Upstart with a monster quarter, the stock probably heads to $100.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.30. -Revenue of $218.96M (+56.1% Y/Y) beats by $37.04M. -Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate: 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and up 33% QoQ. Our Conversion Rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023. Original article posted on Jan. 07 Upstart Holdings saw a surge to $80 due to positive earnings but remains overvalued at $60 despite higher loan demand from Fed rate cuts. The AI lending platform's expansion into secured auto loans and HELOCs hasn't yielded significant growth in a huge disappointment, and the company is still struggling to turn a profit. UPST stock trades at 8x forward sales, limiting the attractiveness of Upstart. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » After urging investors to sell into strengt...

  Rivian's expansion plan includes a DOE loan for a Georgia plant, aiming for 615K annual production by 2030, despite potential political risks. The upcoming Q4 results are crucial due to the focus on achieving positive gross margins for the 1st time, allowing the market to shift away from large losses. The EV manufacturer moved the focus towards the R2 ramp in 2026, aiming for annual sales of 200K to lead to EBITDA profitability by 2027. The stock is cheap due to the massive opportunity to ramp up production over 10x in the next 5+ years. As the calendar turned to 2025,  Rivian Automotive, Inc.  ( RIVN )  gets closer to fully unleashing their EV platform. The Normal, Ill. plant expansion is in full force and the company recently obtained a government  loan to build the Georgia plant in order to produce R2s and R3s. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentione...

Update - Jan. 29, 2025 Meta with another big quarter, Q1 guidance was wonky though. Another big beat in the March quarter and Meta beats the current consensus estimates. -Q4 GAAP EPS of $8.02 beats by $1.26. -Revenue of $48.39B (+20.6% Y/Y) beats by $1.4B. CFO Outlook Commentary: We expect first quarter 2025 total revenue to be in the range of $39.5-41.8 billion vs. consensus of $41.62B. This reflects 8-15% year-over-year growth, or 11-18% growth on a constant currency basis as our guidance assumes foreign currency is an approximately 3% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth, based on current exchange rates. Original article posted on Jan. 22 Meta Platforms, Inc.'s stock remains attractive due to AI and Metaverse opportunities, even after the stock's massive run in the last couple of years. The company has a massive catalyst in smart glasses with an aim to replace smartphones in the future, warranting Reality Labs' $17+ billion annual loss. The stock could reach $...