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Showing posts from 2025

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AST SpaceMobile: Intermittent Service Isn't Enough

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Update - Sept. 9 AST SpaceMobile appears headed back down to $25. The UBS downgrade following the Starlink purchase of Echostar spectrum is the final straw.  Shares of AST SpaceMobile slipped nearly 8% during early trading hours on Tuesday as UBS downgraded the company to Neutral from Buy, mainly due to increasing competitive concerns. UBS said ASTS Will be a leader in the emerging space-to-cellular  broadband market on the back of its technology, carrier relationships and ability to link unmodified devices using multiple spectrum bands. The brokerage firm also lowered its price target to $43 from a previous price target of $62. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Aug. 13  AST SpaceMobile continues to miss satellite launch targets, delaying commercial service and raising doubts about execution. Competitive threats from Starlink an...

Roblox: Don't Chase For Now

  Roblox remains a top growth story, but the stock is now priced for perfection after a major run. The immersive gaming platform faces more child safety lawsuits and engagement concerns, but record user engagement and new safety tools show continued platform strength. The stock valuation is stretched at over 12x 2026 bookings and 95x 2025 free cash flow, with growth expected to normalize back to 20%. Roblox offers long-term upside, but I recommend caution at current levels above $125 and suggest waiting for a better entry point. Roblox Corporation  ( NYSE: RBLX ) has had a major run this year, reducing the appeal of the stock. The immersive gaming platform remains one of the great growth stories, but Roblox is priced for perfection, and any hints at internal  problems will hit the stock. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock after this run-up. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclai...

C3.ai: Still An Ignored AI Play

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Update - Sept. 4, 2025 C3.ai still hasn't explained the reason for so much sales to just disappear during FQ1 while the FQ2 guidance for $72-$80M is only a small bounce back. The enterprise AI software company did announce a promising new CEO is a sign this could be the bottom.  -FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.37 misses by $0.16. -Revenue of $70.26M (-19.4% Y/Y) Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on July 1 C3.ai is experiencing strong overall growth, especially in professional services, but subscription revenue growth remains muted and needs improvement for stronger investor confidence. The company’s partnership with Microsoft Azure and a major U.S. Air Force contract expansion highlight significant future growth catalysts and validation of its AI solutions. Despite persistent operating losses, C3.ai’s robust $743 million cash balance and low EV/Sal...

SentinelOne: Ignored AI Cybersecurity Play

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  SentinelOne delivered strong FQ2 results, with net new ARR rebounding to $53M and total ARR surpassing $1B, alleviating prior growth concerns. AI-driven products like Purple AI and Prompt Security are driving adoption, reducing security events, and positioning SentinelOne as a leader in enterprise AI security. The cybersecurity company now has positive operating margins and boasts $1.2B in cash, supporting continued innovation and strategic acquisitions. The stock valuation remains deeply discounted at 6x forward sales versus peers, offering compelling risk/reward as growth and multiple expansion potential remain high. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » SentinelOne, Inc.  ( NYSE: S ) rallied somewhat after a  strong FQ2 earnings report . The cybersecurity company has constantly been overlooked despite strong growth with a shifting focus on cloud and AI. ...

CoreWeave: Market Takes Away, Market Gives Back

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Update - Aug. 27, 2025 CoreWeave has seen the momentum change with the Cantor buy rating and $116 price target. The lock-up expiration flush should be over.  Original article posted on Aug. 15 CoreWeave, Inc.'s stock collapse post-acquisition and early lock-up creates a compelling buying opportunity below $100, flipping the original thesis. The AI Cloud company reported strong Q2 results with 210% revenue growth, $1B+ quarterly sales, and a record of $30.1B backlog, showing massive demand and scalability. Despite heavy capex and $11B of debt, CoreWeave has the large backlog and expanding customer based to handle the load. CRWV stock is cheap, now trading below 3x '27 sales targets due to strong AI data center growth and an expanding software/services, positioning CoreWeave for outsized future gains. Originally,  CoreWeave, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: CRWV ) looked like a great opportunity to unload an AI cloud company at a massive premium prior to the lock-up expiration following the...

PayPal: Stablecoin Boost Ahead

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  PayPal is positioned for strong growth with its PYUSD stablecoin and the PayPal World global wallet platform as major catalysts. The company is leveraging its vast user base and partnerships to expand PYUSD's adoption, aiming to capture a larger share of the potential for a multi-trillion-dollar stablecoin market. PayPal is delivering solid financial results, with 5% revenue growth, 18% EPS growth, and aggressive share buybacks enhancing shareholder value. The stock only trades at 12x '26 EPS targets, and upcoming catalysts make me ultra bullish on the stock's long-term upside potential. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » PayPal Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: PYPL ) has a slow and steady growth profile with a major catalyst opportunity. The fintech continues progressing towards a dynamic commerce platform led by crypto via a leading stablecoin and an expansion to ...

Viking Therapeutics: Panic Creates Opportunity

  Viking Therapeutics' stock plunged over 40% after misunderstood Phase 2 oral weight-loss drug data, despite results showing strong short-term efficacy versus market leaders. The Phase 2 trial demonstrated 12.2% weight loss in 13 weeks, with progressive results and potential for further improvement with longer dosing periods. Concerns over high discontinuation and GI side effects are noted, but these issues are manageable and expected to be addressed in Phase 3 studies. The market's reaction is a major overreaction; I remain ultra bullish on VKTX stock, as the investment thesis is de-risked and the pipeline is well-funded for future growth. Viking Therapeutics, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: VKTX ) plunged after the market wildly misinterpreted Phase 2 data for a key weight loss drug. The biotech continues to progress to a pivotal Phase 3 study while de-risking the strong pipeline. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock, especially after Viking Therapeutics fell...

SoundHound AI: Confounding Growth Story

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Update - Aug. 18, 2025 SoundHound AI has quickly rolled over as the market starts understanding the limited organic growth doesn't warrant a stock trading at 40x sales targets. The stock likely closes the gap down to $11.06 from Aug. 7.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Aug. 13 SoundHound AI reported record Q2 revenues, but guidance for the second half of 2025 was weaker, raising concerns about sustainable growth. The company continues to report limited organic growth, with much of the recent revenue boost attributed to acquisitions rather than core business expansion. Despite a $6.5 billion valuation and claims of a large pipeline, actual progress in key verticals like restaurants and autos appears slow and unclear. I remain ultra bearish on SOUN due to its rich valuation and lack of a compelling, transparent growth story for long-term ...

Nextdoor: Major Catalyst Has Finally Arrived

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Update - July 25, 2025 Nextdoor surged following the launch of the NEXT platform and switch of the ticker to "NXDR", but the stock has sold off the last 4 days providing an ideal entry point.  Original article posted on June 4 Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. trades near cash value, presenting a compelling risk/reward as it prepares to launch its transformative NEXT platform. Management paused monetization and user growth to focus on NEXT, temporarily depressing revenue but setting up for a major turnaround. NEXT aims to deliver hyper-local content, professional news, and AI-driven recommendations, addressing past engagement and monetization challenges. The stock trades at less than 1x EV/S targets due to a strong cash position, limiting downside risk while the upcoming platform relaunch offers significant upside potential. Just as  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.  ( KIND ) is set to launch a new user interface, the stock trades at all-time lows. Despite a promising turnaround in place, t...

SoundHound AI: Murky Growth

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Update - July 23 SoundHound AI is making another run at breaking resistance around $12.50. The voice AI stock has no business rallying from here, but the market doesn't fully understand pro-forma sales metrics.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posed on July 18 SoundHound AI, Inc.'s reported 150%+ growth is misleading, driven by acquisitions rather than true organic expansion, yet the stock trades at a premium valuation. Revenue guidance and pro forma numbers reveal little to no organic growth, casting doubt on management's optimistic projections and market enthusiasm. The stock trades at 30x 2025 sales targets of $167 million, which appear very aggressive. Given the murky growth story and high valuation, I recommend selling SOUN, as the stock is priced for perfection without supporting fundamentals. SoundHound AI, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: SOUN )...

Joby Aviation: $1 Billion Saudi Signal

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Update - July 16, 2025 Joby Aviation has now soared over 100% in the last month with the market cap jumping to nearly $14 billion. The stock is at all-time highs while the eVTOL is still is the process of certifying aircraft. Investors might want to pump the brakes.  Original article posted on June 5 Joby Aviation, Inc. surged on Toyota's $250M investment, boosting liquidity to $1.3B and reinforcing their manufacturing partnership. The air taxi company is progressing towards commercial launch, with pilot testing in Dubai and a potential $1B+ sales agreement in Saudi Arabia. Joby Aviation has production ramp-up plans for up to 500 eVTOLs annually, with a mix of direct sales and air taxi operations driving future revenue. JOBY stock is attractive on dips towards $7 due to certification and launch risks. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Joby Aviation, Inc.  ( NY...

Rivian: Moving Beyond Survival Mode

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  Rivian is making significant progress towards profitability due to major cost reductions, despite current sales challenges in the premium EV sector. The upcoming R2 and R3 models are set to dramatically boost sales, with production ramping up at the Normal, Illinois facility in 2026. Tesla's recent struggles and Elon Musk's political distractions create an opportunity for Rivian to capture market share in the domestic EV segment. I'm ultra bullish on Rivian at current levels, especially if the stock dips near $11, as future growth catalysts remain strong. As Elon Musk is still distracted by politics,  Rivian Automotive, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RIVN ) continues to progress towards launching the next-generation vehicles expected to dramatically boost sales levels. The EV maker has made significant progress towards turning profitable while  Tesla, Inc.  ( TSLA ) has floundered a massive lead in the EV race. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on Rivian...

Meta: Superintelligence Requiring A Bigger Scale (Rating Downgrade)

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Update - June 30, 2025 Meta  quickly rallied to a new high today at $748 on the Superintelligent Labs and quickly eversed in a potential sign of a top. In a bid to lead the next wave of AI innovation, Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) is creating a “superintelligence” division dedicated to developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies. Meta Superintelligent Labs will be led by Alexandr Wang, the former CEO of Scale who Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) lured away after making a $14.3B investment for a 49% stake in the company. Along with Wang, a select group of Scale employees and researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google ( GOOG ) have also joined the Meta superintelligence team. In a letter to employees viewed by Bloomberg, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, “as the pace of AI progress accelerates, developing superintelligence is coming into sight. I believe this will be the beginning of a new era for humanity, and I am fully committed to doing what it takes for Meta to lead the way.” ...

CoreWeave: Ride Higher Until Lock-Up Expiration

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  CoreWeave rebounded sharply post-IPO, alleviating initial fears about debt and customer concentration with strong Q1 results and surging AI demand. The AI hyperscaler has robust adjusted EBITDA supporting the company’s ability to handle large debt loads, but capital needs remain high. A looming lock-up expiration, limited public float, and significant stock options/warrants could trigger heavy selling pressure in late September. At nearly $190, I’m tepidly bullish but cautious given the stretched valuation, rising debt, and potential dilution from upcoming share unlocks. CoreWeave, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: CRWV ) had a disappointing IPO, but the stock action over the last month has made up for the bad start. The stock of the AI hyperscaler is now up 365% from the IPO price. My investment thesis is tepidly Bullish  with CoreWeave trading up at nearly $184, knowing the lock-up expiration will likely take the stock down. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No...

Under Armour: Positioned For A Turnaround

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Update - June 20, 2025 UA appears set for a run with no real news today. The stock broke the downtrend today.  Original article posted on May 21  Under Armour's turnaround is challenged by tariffs and weak sales, but founding CEO Kevin Plank's return brings renewed focus on innovation and premium products. Product resets and SKU cuts have hurt sales, but new launches like the Uncrushable Hat and No Weigh Backpack show promise for higher-margin growth. The stock remains cheap at only 0.6x forward EV/S targets, while industry peers trade at least 3x the multiple of sales. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » The  Under Armour, Inc.  ( NYSE: UA ) ( NYSE: UAA ) turnaround continues to struggle with the dynamic retail market due to tariffs. The athletic apparel company has made a lot of progress on innovation since founder Kevin Plank  returned to the C...

Ouster: Inflection Point

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Update - June 11, 2025 Ouster surged 27% today on news of their digital Lidar being approved by the DoD for the Blue UAS Framework. The company doesn't have any news on actual contracts, but Ouster is now set up for future drone contracts.  -Ouster (NASDAQ:OUST) shares jumped 21% premarket on Wednesday after its OS1 digital lidar was approved by the Department of Defense for use in unmanned aerial systems.-Following a review of components and cybersecurity testing, the Defense Innovation Unit approved and added the Ouster OS1 to the Blue UAS Framework. The Ouster OS1 becomes the first high-resolution 3D lidar sensor approved under the Blue UAS Framework. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May 9 Ouster, Inc. reported strong Q1 2025 results with a solid revenue beat, signaling a potential inflection point. The company recently announced seve...

Broadcom: Watered-Down AI Play

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  Broadcom's AI business is growing rapidly but remains a small portion of its $1.2T valuation, making the stock richly priced for its current AI exposure. AI revenues are forecast to reach $5.1B in FQ3, with custom AI accelerators and networking driving growth, but overall sales growth is less impressive. Despite a $10B buyback and strong margins, future sales growth is projected below 20%, and AI's lower margins limit further profitability leverage. The stock already trades at 14x FY27 sales targets, boosted by AI growing at a 60% clip, though Broadcom appears headed higher in the short term. Broadcom Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AVGO ) ( NEOE: AVGO:CA ) is a massive technology infrastructure company, shifting the focus into AI infrastructure. The company makes promising custom AI chips for industry leaders, but the market is already pricing in a  lot of AI excitement. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock, with the breakout prior to earnings likely dictating the stock price ...