Friday, February 4, 2011

1st Anniversary on Covestor

The Opportunistic Arbitrage model completed its first year of being available for subscription on Covestor yesterday. It seems like a long time ago that I agreed to start tracking a real portfolio on Covestor that was available to the public for real time tracking. Didn't know what to expect but its been a incredible year.

The model gained 69.16% in its first year far outpacing any of my goals. The clear goal is to outperform the SP500, but by 5,000 basis points is clearly beyond reasonable expectations. Clearly it will be difficult to repeat such a performance in year 2, but I'll definitely work hard to make the biggest gain possible while trying to keep risk reasonable.

Some of the biggest gainers were the cloud computing plays of Riverbed Tech (RVBD) and Terremark Worldwide (TMRK) that recently got a nice buyout bid from Verzion (VZ). The other big gains came from the commodity plays of Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), and Massey Energy (MEE). Several other stocks contributed to such a large gain as well.

Looking forward, several areas remain very attractively valued including the insurance companies, Hartford Financial (HIG) and Lincoln National (LNC), trading at 60-70% of book value and with PEs of sub 8. Also, the small cap material plays in China remain very attractive as the market continues to lump them all into fraud scenarios. Coal play Puda Coal (PUDA) and copper play Lihua International (LIWA) are the top picks.

Really looking forward to see where Covestor can take this model in its 2nd year after accumulating 33 subscribers this last year and recently peaking out at 35. Below are the results as posted by Covestor. Please contact them about subscribing to this model.



Inception Feb 03, 2010Manager*S&P 500Avg. Sub.
Month to date (%)3.811.633.65
1 month (%)-0.032.26-0.15
3 month (%)21.718.6919.94
Annualized since inception (%)69.1619.12n/a
Since inception (%)69.1619.12n/a
Sharpe (annualized)1.461.07n/a



Disclaimer: This information should not be construed as investment advice. All information on stock ideas are for information basis only and aren't intended to be used as financial advice. Mark Holder is not a registered investment advisor and therefore can not provide any specific advice. Future results can not be guaranteed. Please contact Covestor to find out more information about the subscription process. 





No comments: