IB Net Payout Yields Model

Fast Money Halftime Negativity Fest 2

Watching the Fast Money Halftime show on CNBC today reminds me of how bearish traders still are these days. Back on May 13th, we hightlighted the same scenario [Fast Money Halftime Negativity Fest]. The SP500 was around 880 at that point and we all know how it rocketed to 1,080 just this week or roughly 200 points.

In a normal day after a few days of selloffs, traders would be going back and forth on whether to buy the pullback or sell more. Today though they are all jumping on the notion that this is the beginning of the big reversal and correction. All of this prior to the market even breaking the 20EMA or its uptrend. Seems more like signs of people that want or expect a certain action to take place and they are trying to will it to be. Its pretty surprising because all of these traders should be more on board with the trend of 3-4% drops to the 20EMA finding support. Spots where buying as been very profitable. None of that here and that makes me more bullish. We've been stronger supportors of the 'melt up' market concept and this just backs up our claims. Most of the market continues to look the wrong direction expecting a huge correction even though its not typical of a recovery market.

Continue to buy the dips! Watch this video if you want to be depressed. Have fun counting all the reasons this is the top. Pete Najarian made the best comment to the tune bells don't go off at the tops and at the bottoms. To me all these would be bells so.....

  1. Key reversal on Wed - higher high closed at lower low
  2. Stocks trading at pre-Lehman levels (mind you not the market but just a few stocks)
  3. Large amount of IPOs (mind you mostly just firms paying off debt)
  4. ????


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