IB Net Payout Yields Model

Oct 2012 Oil Trades at $70

Future oil contracts continue to trade at extreme prices compared to the current month. Check out Nymex Oil for up to date prices. Most of the media focuses on the current contract trading in the 30s, but the long term plans in the energy market are more based on future contracts. Companies can already lock in prices in the $60s and $70s. If anything, the current weakness in the markets will ensure that we reach these future prices.

Some of our favorite stocks would be FWLT and ATW. FWLT for their huge backlog of energy related projects unlikely to get canceled with high prices in the future. ATW for it's deepwater drilling focus. ATW has more risk being a small cap with debt, but it currently trades at $15 with earnings in the $4-5 range expected for next year. The company is also on an aggressive growth plan with its 9th ship to begin work in February and 2 ultra-deepwater ships being built for 2011 and 2012. This provides for huge growth for this sector, but also high risk considering the uncertainties in both the credit and oil markets.

If your a bull on the oil market as suggested by future oil prices, then FWLT and ATW provide great investment opportunities at these levels. Especially, ATW that trades close to its recent lows.


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