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Showing posts from December, 2025

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Palo Alto Networks: Another Costly Deal

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  Palo Alto Networks is aggressively acquiring CyberArk and Chronosphere for a combined $28.4B to fill platform gaps, signaling strategic weaknesses. The cybersecurity company is still struggling to boost growth after the cybersecurity platformization shift with a FY26 forecast of only 14%. Recent deals will boost reported growth rates above 30%, but underlying organic growth remains lackluster and integration risks are elevated. The stock's valuation remains stretched at nearly 50x FY26 EPS and over 12x revenue, despite slowing organic growth and heavy shareholder dilution. Only months ago,  Palo Alto Networks Inc.  ( PANW ) bought  CyberArk Software Ltd.  ( CYBR ) in a deal where investors were warned to fade the rally. The cybersecurity company has long promoted  the platformization concept, but the company announced another deal to acquire  Chronosphere  highlighting the issues with the business model. My  investment thesis  remains ...

Cipher Mining: Future AI Data Center Powerhouse

  Cipher Mining has secured major AI data center leasing deals with AWS and Fluidstack, totaling billions in long-term contracted revenues. The company is not providing AI compute services, instead acting as a power shell lessor, avoiding GPU risk but limiting upside to real estate-like returns. Near-term revenue remains dominated by bitcoin mining; AI data center revenues begin in late 2026, with consensus projecting $1B in 2027 sales. The stock trades at nearly 7x 2027 sales, faces substantial debt, and lacks near-term catalysts, making the stock a Neutral given long lead times for capacity expansion. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Cipher Mining Inc. ( CIFR ) recently entered the AI data center race with major deals with hyperscaler customers. The bitcoin miner is part of a group of companies transitioning from running data centers for crypto mining  to ...

Roblox: Don't Chase For Now

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Update - Dec. 16, 2025 J.P. Morgan cut the price target to $100, down from $145, due to questions on engagement and user headwinds. The stock is getting  cheap at close to 7x '26 sales while the market is over thinking the engagement  headwinds after nearly  100% growth in Q3.  The research firm said they are positive on RBLX’s longer-term positioning in the video game  ecosystem but think shares could take a breather in 2026 from engagement headwinds, slowing bookings growth, and margin compression. JPM said engagement trends have started to moderate, with most viral experiences past their peaks. They expect an engagement headwind from the facial age estimation rollout in January and estimate the Russia ban could impact up to 10M DAUs. Update - Oct. 30, 2025  Roblox reported massive Q3'25 growth with bookings up 70% to $1.9 billion. The stock is down roughly 10% with the market lost focusing on GAAP revenue and net loss metrics, which don't fully incorpora...

Trulieve: Don't Chase Cannabis Legalization Bumps

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Update - Dec. 12, 2025 As predicted, Trulieve Cannabis was a buy on dips. The stock is only back to the previous price with Trump now expected to sign an executive order on Monday. -Cannabis stock extended premarket gains in regular trading on Friday after CNBC reported that President Donald Trump is expected to sign his much-anticipated executive order to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug as early as Monday. -The president is actively drafting an executive order on rescheduling to be released on Monday, according to the report, which cited a source familiar with the matter. Original article posted on Oct. 1 Trulieve Cannabis remains deeply undervalued despite recent rallies driven by political statements supporting CBD and potential cannabis reform. The MSO faces significant tax overhang due to 280E but maintains strong operating cash flow and minimal capital requirements, with $401 million in cash. Trulieve is positioned for growth with catalysts like Florida adult-use...

Gemini Space Station: Predicting A Higher Price

  Gemini Space Station trades well below its IPO price, presenting a value opportunity after a sharp post-IPO decline. The crypto exchange already reported Q3'25 revenues surged 52% QoQ to nearly $50 million, with diversified growth from credit cards, staking, and advisory services. Securing a CFTC license for U.S. prediction markets and expanding derivatives offerings are major catalysts for future growth. Despite current losses, GEMI targets rapid revenue expansion to $321 million by 2026 and nearly $500 million by 2027, supporting an ultra-bullish outlook. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Gemini Space Station, Inc. ( GEMI ) quickly went from a hot IPO to a beaten-down stock. The crypto exchange run by the Winklevoss twins is now entering the prediction markets with investors able to buy  the stock far below the IPO price. My investment thesis is ultra Bull...