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Showing posts from July, 2025

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Nextdoor: Major Catalyst Has Finally Arrived

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Update - July 25, 2025 Nextdoor surged following the launch of the NEXT platform and switch of the ticker to "NXDR", but the stock has sold off the last 4 days providing an ideal entry point.  Original article posted on June 4 Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. trades near cash value, presenting a compelling risk/reward as it prepares to launch its transformative NEXT platform. Management paused monetization and user growth to focus on NEXT, temporarily depressing revenue but setting up for a major turnaround. NEXT aims to deliver hyper-local content, professional news, and AI-driven recommendations, addressing past engagement and monetization challenges. The stock trades at less than 1x EV/S targets due to a strong cash position, limiting downside risk while the upcoming platform relaunch offers significant upside potential. Just as  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.  ( KIND ) is set to launch a new user interface, the stock trades at all-time lows. Despite a promising turnaround in place, t...

SoundHound AI: Murky Growth

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Update - July 23 SoundHound AI is making another run at breaking resistance around $12.50. The voice AI stock has no business rallying from here, but the market doesn't fully understand pro-forma sales metrics.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posed on July 18 SoundHound AI, Inc.'s reported 150%+ growth is misleading, driven by acquisitions rather than true organic expansion, yet the stock trades at a premium valuation. Revenue guidance and pro forma numbers reveal little to no organic growth, casting doubt on management's optimistic projections and market enthusiasm. The stock trades at 30x 2025 sales targets of $167 million, which appear very aggressive. Given the murky growth story and high valuation, I recommend selling SOUN, as the stock is priced for perfection without supporting fundamentals. SoundHound AI, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: SOUN )...

Joby Aviation: $1 Billion Saudi Signal

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Update - July 16, 2025 Joby Aviation has now soared over 100% in the last month with the market cap jumping to nearly $14 billion. The stock is at all-time highs while the eVTOL is still is the process of certifying aircraft. Investors might want to pump the brakes.  Original article posted on June 5 Joby Aviation, Inc. surged on Toyota's $250M investment, boosting liquidity to $1.3B and reinforcing their manufacturing partnership. The air taxi company is progressing towards commercial launch, with pilot testing in Dubai and a potential $1B+ sales agreement in Saudi Arabia. Joby Aviation has production ramp-up plans for up to 500 eVTOLs annually, with a mix of direct sales and air taxi operations driving future revenue. JOBY stock is attractive on dips towards $7 due to certification and launch risks. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Joby Aviation, Inc.  ( NY...

Rivian: Moving Beyond Survival Mode

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  Rivian is making significant progress towards profitability due to major cost reductions, despite current sales challenges in the premium EV sector. The upcoming R2 and R3 models are set to dramatically boost sales, with production ramping up at the Normal, Illinois facility in 2026. Tesla's recent struggles and Elon Musk's political distractions create an opportunity for Rivian to capture market share in the domestic EV segment. I'm ultra bullish on Rivian at current levels, especially if the stock dips near $11, as future growth catalysts remain strong. As Elon Musk is still distracted by politics,  Rivian Automotive, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RIVN ) continues to progress towards launching the next-generation vehicles expected to dramatically boost sales levels. The EV maker has made significant progress towards turning profitable while  Tesla, Inc.  ( TSLA ) has floundered a massive lead in the EV race. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on Rivian...