IB Net Payout Yields Model
For a portfolio that is very aggressively invested, I'm proud to report that it has outperformed the S&P500 during the worst week ever by 2.3%.The S&P500 was down 18.1% vs 15.9% for the Growth fund. The portfolio is also ahead MTD and over the last 3 months. This may be the first time in my investing career that I've done better then the markets during a 3 month period that the market is down 27%. This was achieved because of my bet that oil had peaked in July mainly due to slacking demand when gas hit $4. Hence I invested in DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas). This position has paid off nicely to the tune of a 150% and over $90K in gains in 3 short months. On Friday's open, DUG soared up to the upper 70s so I chose to cash in 2/3s of the position. After watching it soar further to 85, I cut the remaining position at 80 as it seemed like the typical blowoff top that is followed by steep declines. With this substantial sell, I bought an 8% position in APPL in the lows 90s on Friday still leaving me with a huge position in cash. Depending on the market, the remaining $114K cash will go to work this week likely on the long side on any weakness that holds the lows. We'll likely not see any huge follow through rallies the next few weeks since so much damage has been done to the markets that most funds will likely still face redemptions. Probably scale into longs over the weeks to follow unless we see a huge rally at which point I'd likely buy an ultrashort ETF like DUG or SRS.
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Kohl's has activists wanting the company to spin off the e-commerce division to unlock value. The company already has plans to grow the business and activists have yet to show how a full omni-channel business can operate as two different companies. The stock is absurdly cheap at 7x EPS targets and Kohl's will repurchase over 15% of the outstanding shares this year. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street. Learn More » After an outstanding quarter with business booming, Kohl's ( KSS ) faces activists wanting to break up the business. The omni-channel retailer is facing the same pressure as other department stores to separate the e-commerce business in what amounts to financial engineering. My investment thesis remains very bullish on the retailer as the company reinvents the shopping experience. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long KSS. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. Update -
Update - Mar. 27, 2023 Ouster missed a great opportunity to promote the combined business of Velodyne Lidar and Ouster and the company decided to pass. The stock trades below $1 for this reason and management has to own this incompetence. -Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.23 misses by $0.03. -Revenue of $10.94M (-7.7% Y/Y) misses by $4.9M. -Secured company record $70 million in bookings in 2022 - Q1'23 revenue guidance of $15 to $17 million, excludes Velodyne revenues through merger close on Feb. 10. The Q4 revenue total was closer to $25 million and the Q1'23 pro-forma revenue total was probably closer to $21 million. Update - Mar. 15, 2023 Pretty nice deal here with 100 Lidar sensors shipped at the end of '22. Ouster shouldn't be trading back below $1. -Fieldin has already deployed dozens of kits at its customers’ farms and plans to deploy over 100 autonomy retrofit kits on tractors, each equipped with an Ouster OS1, to major customers across the United States in 2023. Ouster