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Showing posts from September, 2025

IB Net Payout Yields Model

CoreWeave: Market Takes Away, Market Gives Back

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Update - Sept. 19, 2025 As predicted, CoreWeave has started recovering after the irrational sell off heading into the lock-up expiration. The stock is back to $125 now and Loop Capital just initiated the stock with a $165 price target based only on a 10x '27 EBITDA target of $12.8 billion. The firm forecasts '27 revenues of $17.9 billion.  The stock is probably an easy ride back to prior highs with booming AI data center demand.  Update - Aug. 27, 2025 CoreWeave has seen the momentum change with the Cantor buy rating and $116 price target. The lock-up expiration flush should be over.  Original article posted on Aug. 15 CoreWeave, Inc.'s stock collapse post-acquisition and early lock-up creates a compelling buying opportunity below $100, flipping the original thesis. The AI Cloud company reported strong Q2 results with 210% revenue growth, $1B+ quarterly sales, and a record of $30.1B backlog, showing massive demand and scalability. Despite heavy capex and $11B of debt, Cor...

Hims & Hers Health: Bumpy Ride Will End

  Hims & Hers Health has traded very volatile over the last year as the market misunderstands the business opportunity beyond GLP-1s and weight-loss drugs. The online health and wellness faces FDA scrutiny, but this is industry-wide and not unique to the company. The platform is rapidly growing subscribers, launching new offerings, and targeting large under-penetrated markets domestically and internationally on a path to hitting a $6.5B 2030 sales target. The stock trades at a low valuation relative to its growth at only 4x '26 sales targets, making current levels a compelling buying opportunity. Hims & Hers Health, Inc. ( NYSE: HIMS ) has hit a bumpy ride over the last year, with the stock stuck in a range from $40 to $70. The online health and wellness platform has faced a lot of questions regarding compounding GLP-1s, with the latest  news being a letter from the FDA. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock, as the company moves forward w...

AST SpaceMobile: Intermittent Service Isn't Enough

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Update - Sept. 9 AST SpaceMobile appears headed back down to $25. The UBS downgrade following the Starlink purchase of Echostar spectrum is the final straw.  Shares of AST SpaceMobile slipped nearly 8% during early trading hours on Tuesday as UBS downgraded the company to Neutral from Buy, mainly due to increasing competitive concerns. UBS said ASTS Will be a leader in the emerging space-to-cellular  broadband market on the back of its technology, carrier relationships and ability to link unmodified devices using multiple spectrum bands. The brokerage firm also lowered its price target to $43 from a previous price target of $62. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Aug. 13  AST SpaceMobile continues to miss satellite launch targets, delaying commercial service and raising doubts about execution. Competitive threats from Starlink an...

C3.ai: Still An Ignored AI Play

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Update - Sept. 4, 2025 C3.ai still hasn't explained the reason for so much sales to just disappear during FQ1 while the FQ2 guidance for $72-$80M is only a small bounce back. The enterprise AI software company did announce a promising new CEO is a sign this could be the bottom.  -FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.37 misses by $0.16. -Revenue of $70.26M (-19.4% Y/Y) Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on July 1 C3.ai is experiencing strong overall growth, especially in professional services, but subscription revenue growth remains muted and needs improvement for stronger investor confidence. The company’s partnership with Microsoft Azure and a major U.S. Air Force contract expansion highlight significant future growth catalysts and validation of its AI solutions. Despite persistent operating losses, C3.ai’s robust $743 million cash balance and low EV/Sal...

SentinelOne: Ignored AI Cybersecurity Play

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  SentinelOne delivered strong FQ2 results, with net new ARR rebounding to $53M and total ARR surpassing $1B, alleviating prior growth concerns. AI-driven products like Purple AI and Prompt Security are driving adoption, reducing security events, and positioning SentinelOne as a leader in enterprise AI security. The cybersecurity company now has positive operating margins and boasts $1.2B in cash, supporting continued innovation and strategic acquisitions. The stock valuation remains deeply discounted at 6x forward sales versus peers, offering compelling risk/reward as growth and multiple expansion potential remain high. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » SentinelOne, Inc.  ( NYSE: S ) rallied somewhat after a  strong FQ2 earnings report . The cybersecurity company has constantly been overlooked despite strong growth with a shifting focus on cloud and AI. ...