Out Fox The $treet

Update - Jan. 29, 2025 Meta with another big quarter, Q1 guidance was wonky though. Another big beat in the March quarter and Meta beats the current consensus estimates. -Q4 GAAP EPS of $8.02 beats by $1.26. -Revenue of $48.39B (+20.6% Y/Y) beats by $1.4B. CFO Outlook Commentary: We expect first quarter 2025 total revenue to be in the range of $39.5-41.8 billion vs. consensus of $41.62B. This reflects 8-15% year-over-year growth, or 11-18% growth on a constant currency basis as our guidance assumes foreign currency is an approximately 3% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth, based on current exchange rates. Original article posted on Jan. 22 Meta Platforms, Inc.'s stock remains attractive due to AI and Metaverse opportunities, even after the stock's massive run in the last couple of years. The company has a massive catalyst in smart glasses with an aim to replace smartphones in the future, warranting Reality Labs' $17+ billion annual loss. The stock could reach $...

  Nvidia Corporation faces pressure due to DeepSeek's claims of cheaper AI model training, but efficient GPU usage could boost overall AI spending. DeepSeek's R1 model claims to outperform OpenAI at a fraction of the cost, though its actual GPU usage is under scrutiny. Nvidia's stock drop presents a buying opportunity, with AI demand likely to grow despite potential margin risks. The main stock risk is lower margins, but efficient AI models are unlikely to diminish Nvidia's long-term AI GPU growth story. Nvidia Corporation  ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) is getting crushed on news of a Chinese AI company figuring out how to reduce GPU costs to train AI models. The AI chip company traded at a rich valuation, and less demand for GPUs  could crush the sales growth and reduce the value of the stock. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock on any further dips, as more efficient GPU usage could only ramp up AI spending. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Dis...

  Twilio's stock has surged over 100% recently, driven by excitement around its 2025 financial targets, but the growth outlook remains modest at 7%-8%. The company aims for $825-$850 million in free cash flow by 2025, with operating margins improving from 16% in 2024 to 21% by 2027. Analysts have raised price targets towards the current price, but the stock may stagnate as the market shifts focus from 2027 projections back to current year targets. The stock trades at over 20x 2027 EPS targets, limiting future upside after this big rally. Twilio, Inc.  ( NYSE: TWLO ) has soared due to excitement surrounding financial targets for the next 3 years. The CPaaS stock has now soared far over 100% in the last few months on rather limited changes to the financial picture. My  investment thesis  is still Neutral on the stock after this massive rally, looking towards an exit on further gains. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned....

  Rigetti Computing, Inc. is overvalued with minimal revenues currently while facing major competition from tech giants like Google. Nvidia's Quantum Day event and Google's quantum chip news caused temporary stock surges, but don't change Rigetti's long-term business outlook. The CEO warned investors to tamp down expectations after the wild swings in the stock price. RGTI stock trades at nearly 200x '25 sales targets, with limited prospects for near-term material revenues. As with all the quantum computing stocks,  Rigetti Computing, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RGTI ) is very richly valued. The stocks got a rebound bounce on the announcement of a first-ever quantum event from a large chip company, though the event is  highly unlikely to materially change the business path. My investment thesis is ultra-Bearish on the stretched valuation and minuscule results of the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the dis...

  Update - Jan. 16, 2025 Biden's Admin. actions while leaving office will likely be ignored. Any Snap dip is a buying opportunity.  -The Federal Trade Commission has referred a complaint against Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) to the Department of Justice, according to a public statement made by the U.S. government agency Thursday. -The complaint against the Snapchat parent is connected to the deployment of "My AI" chatbot on the company's platform, which the agency alleges poses risk to young users. -The agency said that during its additional investigations on Snap for potential violations of the FTC act, it found reason to believe the company "is violating or is about to violate the law." It added that a proceeding is in the public interest, and as per procedures outlined in the FTC act, it referred the complaint to the Justice Department. Original article posed on Dec. 8 Snap trades near recent lows despite record revenues and a booming subscription business. The c...

Update - Jan. 9, 2025 SoundHound AI still has plenty of downside. The stock valuation can't be justified above $4.  Original article posted on Nov. 13 SoundHound AI's reported growth is misleading; pro forma revenues actually declined 10% in Q3, revealing underlying business weaknesses. The Amelia acquisition contributed far more to revenue targets than originally suggested. Despite beating EPS estimates, SoundHound AI's adjusted EBITDA loss doubled, and the share count surged, inflating the market cap to nearly $3 billion. The stock's extreme valuation at 18x, 2025 sales targets is unjustified; it should revert to the $2-$4 range without clearer business performance. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » The original view on the Amelia deal was concerning, but  SoundHound AI  ( NASDAQ: SOUN ) rallied into earnings due to the strong reported growth rates. The...

  Joby Aviation raised substantial capital in Q4, boosting its cash access to $1.4 billion, and is progressing towards FAA certification and international expansion. The company is constructing facilities in Ohio and Dubai, with plans for a 4-vertiport network in Dubai, aiming for a 2025 launch. Investors should be cautious, as any FAA certification delays could impact the stock; consider holding additional capital for potential cheaper entry points. Joby Aviation, Inc.  ( NYSE: JOBY ) has just flown since completing an underwriting for additional capital in late October. The air taxi space and the general market for speculative stocks have soared in the last few months. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on the stock due to the market valuation after more than a double for Joby Aviation in the last few months, while the business still faces some large regulatory hurdles and startup risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position ment...

Update - Jan. 6, 2025 American Airlines gets a couple of big upgrades including TD Cowen with a $25 PT. As usually, the analysts waited until the stock was at multi-year highs.  -Shares of American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) are getting a lift early Monday as TD Cowen and Jefferies both upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with Cowen raising its target price to a street high of $25. -American’s (AAL) strategy to focus on its short-haul network that is “ideally” served by its regional fleet offers connectivity to its carrier’s Sun Belt hubs and benefits its international network, a stark difference from other carriers that focus on their large, coastal hubs, Jefferies analyst Conor Walters writes in Monday’s research note. -“Ongoing corporate share recapture, lower capacity and [capital expenditures] and a new [credit card deal with Citigroup] means American (AAL) could see significant surprise to the upside in 2025 against a rationalizing industry backdrop,” Walters adds. Original articl...

Updated - Jan. 2, 2025 Luminar Tech. has been crushed since reporting earnings and completing a reverse stock split. The other more speculative Lidar plays like Innoviz Tech. (INVZ) and AEye (LIDR) have both doubled by avoiding the reverse split.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Nov. 13.  Luminar Technologies, Inc. is making progress with new deals, but financials remain weak, requiring patience for long-term gains. Volvo's EX90 production ramp and a second model with Iris LiDAR promise future revenue growth, despite current low sales. Luminar's insurance program could offer significant savings, potentially making LiDAR cost-effective for consumers. Despite frustrating financials, Luminar's strategic cost savings and production ramp-up suggest better financials by 2026. The autonomous driving sector continues to heat up, but  ...