Roblox: Don't Chase For Now
Update - Dec. 16, 2025 J.P. Morgan cut the price target to $100, down from $145, due to questions on engagement and user headwinds. The stock is getting cheap at close to 7x '26 sales while the market is over thinking the engagement headwinds after nearly 100% growth in Q3. The research firm said they are positive on RBLX’s longer-term positioning in the video game ecosystem but think shares could take a breather in 2026 from engagement headwinds, slowing bookings growth, and margin compression. JPM said engagement trends have started to moderate, with most viral experiences past their peaks. They expect an engagement headwind from the facial age estimation rollout in January and estimate the Russia ban could impact up to 10M DAUs. Update - Oct. 30, 2025 Roblox reported massive Q3'25 growth with bookings up 70% to $1.9 billion. The stock is down roughly 10% with the market lost focusing on GAAP revenue and net loss metrics, which don't fully incorpora...